Skip to main content
bioRxiv
  • Home
  • About
  • Submit
  • ALERTS / RSS
Advanced Search
New Results

Modelling the future distribution of rare bryophytes in Scotland: is inclusion of habitat loss important?

View ORCID ProfileAnna Ferretto, Pete Smith, David Genney, Robin Matthews, Rob Brooker
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.30.458156
Anna Ferretto
1University of Aberdeen
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Anna Ferretto
  • For correspondence: vapo17@hotmail.it
Pete Smith
1University of Aberdeen
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
David Genney
2Nature Scot
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Robin Matthews
3James Hutton Institute
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Rob Brooker
3James Hutton Institute
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • Abstract
  • Full Text
  • Info/History
  • Metrics
  • Supplementary material
  • Preview PDF
Loading

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to predict species ranges and their future distribution under climate change scenarios. In this study we applied Maxent, one of the most used SDMs, to project the distribution of some rare bryophyte species in Scotland in the 2050s. Most of these species are strongly linked to the blanket bog habitat, which is threatened by climate change in the near future. To assess the extent to which changes in habitat distribution leads to a different modelled distribution of the selected bryophytes, blanket bog distribution was included in the model as one of the explanatory variables for some species, and Maxent was run for three 2050s scenarios: once with the current blanket bog distribution and two other runs using the blanket bog distribution derived from two bioclimatic models (Lindsay modified and Blanket Bog Tree model) under the same climate change scenario. For seven out of nine of our studied bryophyte species, the modelled distribution in Scotland was predicted to decline, with some species retreating towards the north-west and other species almost disappearing. When the change in blanket bog distribution was also accounted for, further areas in the north/centre east of Scotland and in the south were predicted to be unfavourable for many of the species considered. Our findings suggest that when modelling species distributions, habitat distribution also needs to be considered, especially when there is a strong relationship between the species and a particular habitat.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.
Back to top
PreviousNext
Posted August 31, 2021.
Download PDF

Supplementary Material

Email

Thank you for your interest in spreading the word about bioRxiv.

NOTE: Your email address is requested solely to identify you as the sender of this article.

Enter multiple addresses on separate lines or separate them with commas.
Modelling the future distribution of rare bryophytes in Scotland: is inclusion of habitat loss important?
(Your Name) has forwarded a page to you from bioRxiv
(Your Name) thought you would like to see this page from the bioRxiv website.
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.
Share
Modelling the future distribution of rare bryophytes in Scotland: is inclusion of habitat loss important?
Anna Ferretto, Pete Smith, David Genney, Robin Matthews, Rob Brooker
bioRxiv 2021.08.30.458156; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.30.458156
Digg logo Reddit logo Twitter logo Facebook logo Google logo LinkedIn logo Mendeley logo
Citation Tools
Modelling the future distribution of rare bryophytes in Scotland: is inclusion of habitat loss important?
Anna Ferretto, Pete Smith, David Genney, Robin Matthews, Rob Brooker
bioRxiv 2021.08.30.458156; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.30.458156

Citation Manager Formats

  • BibTeX
  • Bookends
  • EasyBib
  • EndNote (tagged)
  • EndNote 8 (xml)
  • Medlars
  • Mendeley
  • Papers
  • RefWorks Tagged
  • Ref Manager
  • RIS
  • Zotero
  • Tweet Widget
  • Facebook Like
  • Google Plus One

Subject Area

  • Ecology
Subject Areas
All Articles
  • Animal Behavior and Cognition (3514)
  • Biochemistry (7367)
  • Bioengineering (5347)
  • Bioinformatics (20326)
  • Biophysics (10046)
  • Cancer Biology (7777)
  • Cell Biology (11353)
  • Clinical Trials (138)
  • Developmental Biology (6453)
  • Ecology (9980)
  • Epidemiology (2065)
  • Evolutionary Biology (13357)
  • Genetics (9373)
  • Genomics (12614)
  • Immunology (7725)
  • Microbiology (19104)
  • Molecular Biology (7465)
  • Neuroscience (41153)
  • Paleontology (301)
  • Pathology (1235)
  • Pharmacology and Toxicology (2142)
  • Physiology (3180)
  • Plant Biology (6880)
  • Scientific Communication and Education (1276)
  • Synthetic Biology (1900)
  • Systems Biology (5328)
  • Zoology (1091)