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Predicting the evolution of Lassa Virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades

View ORCID ProfileRaphaëlle Klitting, Liana E. Kafetzopoulou, Wim Thiery, Gytis Dudas, Sophie Gryseels, Anjali Kotamarthi, Bram Vrancken, Karthik Gangavarapu, Mambu Momoh, John Demby Sandi, Augustine Goba, Foday Alhasan, Donald S. Grant, Robert F. Garry, Allison R. Smither, Mark Zeller, Matthias G. Pauthner, Michelle McGraw, Laura D. Hughes, Sophie Duraffour, Stephan Günther, Marc A. Suchard, Philippe Lemey, Kristian G. Andersen, Simon Dellicour
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.09.22.461380
Raphaëlle Klitting
1Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
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  • ORCID record for Raphaëlle Klitting
  • For correspondence: raphaelle.klitting@posteo.de
Liana E. Kafetzopoulou
2Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, Laboratory for Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, KU Leuven - University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
10Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
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Wim Thiery
3Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
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Gytis Dudas
1Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
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Sophie Gryseels
2Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, Laboratory for Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, KU Leuven - University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
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Anjali Kotamarthi
1Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
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Bram Vrancken
2Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, Laboratory for Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, KU Leuven - University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
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Karthik Gangavarapu
1Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
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Mambu Momoh
4Eastern Technical University of Sierra Leone
5Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Program, Kenema Government Hospital, Kenema, Sierra Leone
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John Demby Sandi
5Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Program, Kenema Government Hospital, Kenema, Sierra Leone
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Augustine Goba
5Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Program, Kenema Government Hospital, Kenema, Sierra Leone
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Foday Alhasan
5Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Program, Kenema Government Hospital, Kenema, Sierra Leone
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Donald S. Grant
5Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Program, Kenema Government Hospital, Kenema, Sierra Leone
6Ministry of Health and Sanitation, Freetown, Sierra Leone
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Robert F. Garry
7Zalgen Labs, LCC, Germantown, MD, USA
8Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Tulane University School of Medicine, New Orleans, LA, 70112 USA
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Allison R. Smither
8Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Tulane University School of Medicine, New Orleans, LA, 70112 USA
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Mark Zeller
1Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
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Matthias G. Pauthner
1Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
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Michelle McGraw
1Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
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Laura D. Hughes
9Department of Integrative, Structural and Computational Biology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, USA
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Sophie Duraffour
10Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
11German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner site Hamburg–Lübeck–Borstel–Riems, Hamburg, Germany
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Stephan Günther
10Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, Hamburg, Germany
11German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner site Hamburg–Lübeck–Borstel–Riems, Hamburg, Germany
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Marc A. Suchard
12Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
13Department of Biostatistics, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
14Department of Human Genetics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
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Philippe Lemey
2Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, Laboratory for Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, KU Leuven - University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
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Kristian G. Andersen
1Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
15Scripps Research Translational Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
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Simon Dellicour
2Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, Laboratory for Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, KU Leuven - University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
16Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, CP160/12 50, av. FD Roosevelt, 1050 Bruxelles, Belgium
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Abstract

Lassa fever is listed among the diseases that pose the greatest risks to public health by the World Health Organization. This severe viral hemorrhagic fever is caused by Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate change, transformations in land use, and human population growth could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. We project that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in areas suitable for Lassa virus may grow from about 100 million to 700 million by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades. Our results highlight how the endemic area of Lassa virus may expand well beyond West Africa in the next decades due to human impact on the environment, putting hundreds of million more people at risk of infection.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.
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Posted September 22, 2021.
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Predicting the evolution of Lassa Virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades
Raphaëlle Klitting, Liana E. Kafetzopoulou, Wim Thiery, Gytis Dudas, Sophie Gryseels, Anjali Kotamarthi, Bram Vrancken, Karthik Gangavarapu, Mambu Momoh, John Demby Sandi, Augustine Goba, Foday Alhasan, Donald S. Grant, Robert F. Garry, Allison R. Smither, Mark Zeller, Matthias G. Pauthner, Michelle McGraw, Laura D. Hughes, Sophie Duraffour, Stephan Günther, Marc A. Suchard, Philippe Lemey, Kristian G. Andersen, Simon Dellicour
bioRxiv 2021.09.22.461380; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.09.22.461380
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Predicting the evolution of Lassa Virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades
Raphaëlle Klitting, Liana E. Kafetzopoulou, Wim Thiery, Gytis Dudas, Sophie Gryseels, Anjali Kotamarthi, Bram Vrancken, Karthik Gangavarapu, Mambu Momoh, John Demby Sandi, Augustine Goba, Foday Alhasan, Donald S. Grant, Robert F. Garry, Allison R. Smither, Mark Zeller, Matthias G. Pauthner, Michelle McGraw, Laura D. Hughes, Sophie Duraffour, Stephan Günther, Marc A. Suchard, Philippe Lemey, Kristian G. Andersen, Simon Dellicour
bioRxiv 2021.09.22.461380; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.09.22.461380

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