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Regional opportunities for Siberian tundra conservation in the next 1000 years

View ORCID ProfileStefan Kruse, Ulrike Herzschuh
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.11.29.470323
Stefan Kruse
1Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A45, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
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  • For correspondence: stefan.kruse@awi.de
Ulrike Herzschuh
1Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A45, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
2Institute of Environmental Sciences and Geography, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam-Golm, Germany
3Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam-Golm, Germany
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Abstract

The biodiversity of tundra areas in northern high latitudes is threatened by invasion of forests under global warming. However, poorly understood nonlinear responses of the treeline ecotone mean the timing and extent of tundra losses are unclear but policymakers need such information to optimize conservation efforts. Our individual based model LAVESI, developed for the Siberian tundra-taiga ecotone, can help improve our understanding. Consequently, we simulated treeline migration trajectories until the end of the millennium, causing a loss of tundra area when advancing north. Our simulations reveal that the treeline follows climate warming with a severe, century-long time lag, which is overcompensated by infilling of stands in the long run even when temperatures cool again. Our simulations reveal that only under ambitious mitigation strategies (RCP 2.6) will ~30% of original tundra areas remain in the north but separated into two disjunct refugia.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.
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Posted November 30, 2021.
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Regional opportunities for Siberian tundra conservation in the next 1000 years
Stefan Kruse, Ulrike Herzschuh
bioRxiv 2021.11.29.470323; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.11.29.470323
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Regional opportunities for Siberian tundra conservation in the next 1000 years
Stefan Kruse, Ulrike Herzschuh
bioRxiv 2021.11.29.470323; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.11.29.470323

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