Predicting evolution in experimental range expansions of an aquatic model system

Abstract

Predicting range expansion dynamics is a challenge for both fundamental and applied research in conservation and global change biology. However, if ecological and evolutionary processes occur on the same time scale, predictions are challenging to make. Combining experimental evolution and mathematical modelling, we assessed the predictability of independent realisations of range expansions in a laboratory model system, the freshwater protozoan Paramecium caudatum. We followed ecological dynamics and evolutionary change in range core and front populations in the experiment. These settings were recreated in a predictive mathematical model, parametrized with dispersal and growth data of the of the 20 founder strains in the experiment. We find that short-term evolution was driven by selection for increased dispersal at the front and general selection for higher growth rates in all treatments. There was a good quantitative match of predicted and observed trait changes. Phenotypic divergence was mirrored by a complete genotypic divergence, indicating the highly repeatable fixation of strains that also were the most likely winners in our model. Long-term evolution in the experimental range front lines resulted in the emergence of a dispersal syndrome, namely a competition - colonisation trade-off. Altogether, both model and experiment highlight the importance of dispersal evolution as a driver of range expansions. Our study suggests that evolution at range fronts may follow predictable trajectories, at least for simple scenarios, and that predicting these dynamics may be possible from knowledge of few key parameters.