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Clinical Time-to-Event Prediction Enhanced by Incorporating Compatible Related Outcomes

Yan Gao, View ORCID ProfileYan Cui
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.01.31.478403
Yan Gao
1Department of Genetics, Genomics and Informatics, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN, 38163, USA
2Center for Integrative and Translational Genomics, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN, 38163, USA
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  • For correspondence: ygao45@uthsc.edu ycui2@uthsc.edu
Yan Cui
1Department of Genetics, Genomics and Informatics, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN, 38163, USA
2Center for Integrative and Translational Genomics, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN, 38163, USA
3Center for Cancer Research, University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN, 38163, USA
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  • ORCID record for Yan Cui
  • For correspondence: ygao45@uthsc.edu ycui2@uthsc.edu
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Abstract

Accurate time-to-event (TTE) prediction of clinical outcomes from personal biomedical data is essential for precision medicine. It has become increasingly common that clinical datasets contain information for multiple related patient outcomes from comorbid diseases or multifaceted endpoints of a single disease. Various TTE models have been developed to handle competing risks that are related to mutually exclusive events. However, clinical outcomes are often non-competing and can occur at the same time or sequentially. Here we develop TTE prediction models with the capacity of incorporating data of compatible related clinical outcomes. We test our method on real and synthetic data and find that the incorporation of related auxiliary clinical outcomes can: 1) significantly improve the TTE prediction performance of convention Cox model while maintaining its interpretability; 2) further improve the performance of the state-of-the-art deep learning based models. While the auxiliary outcomes are utilized for model training, the model deployment is not limited by the availability of the auxiliary outcome data because the auxiliary outcome information is not required for the prediction of the primary outcome once the model is trained.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.
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Posted February 02, 2022.
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Clinical Time-to-Event Prediction Enhanced by Incorporating Compatible Related Outcomes
Yan Gao, Yan Cui
bioRxiv 2022.01.31.478403; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.01.31.478403
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Clinical Time-to-Event Prediction Enhanced by Incorporating Compatible Related Outcomes
Yan Gao, Yan Cui
bioRxiv 2022.01.31.478403; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.01.31.478403

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