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Existing caribou habitat and demographic models are poorly suited for Ring of Fire impact assessment: A roadmap for improving the usefulness, transparency, and availability of models for conservation

View ORCID ProfileMatt Dyson, View ORCID ProfileSarah Endicott, View ORCID ProfileCraig Simpkins, View ORCID ProfileJulie W. Turner, View ORCID ProfileStephanie Avery-Gomm, View ORCID ProfileCheryl A. Johnson, View ORCID ProfileMathieu Leblond, View ORCID ProfileEric Neilson, View ORCID ProfileRob Rempel, View ORCID ProfilePhilip Wiebe, View ORCID ProfileJennifer L. Baltzer, View ORCID ProfileFrances E.C. Stewart, View ORCID ProfileJosie Hughes
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.06.01.494350
Matt Dyson
1Biology Department, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, ON, Canada
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Sarah Endicott
2National Wildlife Research Centre, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
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Craig Simpkins
1Biology Department, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, ON, Canada
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Julie W. Turner
3University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
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Stephanie Avery-Gomm
2National Wildlife Research Centre, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
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Cheryl A. Johnson
2National Wildlife Research Centre, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
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Mathieu Leblond
2National Wildlife Research Centre, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
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Eric Neilson
4Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Edmonton, AB, Canada
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Rob Rempel
5FERIT Environmental Consulting, Thunder Bay, ON, Canada
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Philip Wiebe
6Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Sault Ste. Marie, ON, Canada
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Jennifer L. Baltzer
1Biology Department, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, ON, Canada
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Frances E.C. Stewart
1Biology Department, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, ON, Canada
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Josie Hughes
2National Wildlife Research Centre, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
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  • For correspondence: josie.hughes@ec.gc.ca
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ABSTRACT

Environmental impact assessments often rely on best available information, which may include models that were not designed for purpose and are not accompanied by an assessment of limitations. We reproduced available models of boreal woodland caribou resource selection and demography and evaluated their suitability for projecting impacts of development in the Ring of Fire (RoF) on boreal caribou in the Missisa range (Ontario, Canada). The specificity of the resource selection model limited usefulness for predicting impacts, and high variability in model coefficients among ranges suggests responses vary with habitat availability. The aspatial demographic model projects decreasing survival and recruitment with increasing disturbance, but high variability among populations implies the importance of these impacts depends on the status of the Missisa population, which is not known. New models that are designed for forecasting the cumulative effects of development and climate change are required to inform RoF decisions. To demonstrate how open-source tools and reproducible workflows can improve the transparency and reusability of models we developed an R package for data preparation, resource selection, and demographic calculations. Open-source tools, reproducible workflows, and reuseable forecasting models can improve our collective ability to inform wildlife management decisions in a timely manner.

Competing Interest Statement

Rob Rempel is principal of FERIT Consulting

Footnotes

  • ↵* Co-PIs

  • matt.e.dyson{at}gmail.com; simpkinscraig063{at}gmail.com; jbaltzer{at}wlu.ca; fstewart{at}wlu.ca

  • sarah.endicott{at}ec.gc.ca; Stephanie.Avery-Gomm{at}ec.gc.ca; Cheryl-Ann.Johnson{at}ec.gc.ca; Mathieu.Leblond{at}ec.gc.ca;

  • julwturner{at}gmail.com

  • Eric.W.Neilson{at}NRCan-RNCan.gc.ca

  • northernbio{at}gmail.com

  • philip.wiebe{at}NRCan-RNCan.gc.ca

  • https://osf.io/r9mkp/

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.
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Posted June 03, 2022.
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Existing caribou habitat and demographic models are poorly suited for Ring of Fire impact assessment: A roadmap for improving the usefulness, transparency, and availability of models for conservation
Matt Dyson, Sarah Endicott, Craig Simpkins, Julie W. Turner, Stephanie Avery-Gomm, Cheryl A. Johnson, Mathieu Leblond, Eric Neilson, Rob Rempel, Philip Wiebe, Jennifer L. Baltzer, Frances E.C. Stewart, Josie Hughes
bioRxiv 2022.06.01.494350; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.06.01.494350
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Existing caribou habitat and demographic models are poorly suited for Ring of Fire impact assessment: A roadmap for improving the usefulness, transparency, and availability of models for conservation
Matt Dyson, Sarah Endicott, Craig Simpkins, Julie W. Turner, Stephanie Avery-Gomm, Cheryl A. Johnson, Mathieu Leblond, Eric Neilson, Rob Rempel, Philip Wiebe, Jennifer L. Baltzer, Frances E.C. Stewart, Josie Hughes
bioRxiv 2022.06.01.494350; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.06.01.494350

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