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Operationalizing climate risk in a global warming hotspot

Daniel G. Boyce, Derek P. Tittensor, Susanna Fuller, Stephanie Henson, Kristen Kaschner, Gabriel Reygondeau, Kathryn E. Schleit, Vincent Saba, Nancy Shackell, Ryan Stanley, Boris Worm
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.07.19.500650
Daniel G. Boyce
1Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada
2Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Dartmouth, Canada
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  • For correspondence: dboyce@dal.ca
Derek P. Tittensor
1Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada
3United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK
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Susanna Fuller
4Oceans North, Halifax, Canada, B3J 1E6.
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Stephanie Henson
5National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK
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Kristen Kaschner
6Department of Biometry and Environmental System Analysis, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
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Gabriel Reygondeau
7Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, Changing Ocean Research Unit, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
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Kathryn E. Schleit
4Oceans North, Halifax, Canada, B3J 1E6.
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Vincent Saba
8NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University Forrestal Campus, Princeton, NJ 08540
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Nancy Shackell
2Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Dartmouth, Canada
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Ryan Stanley
2Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Dartmouth, Canada
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Boris Worm
1Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada
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Abstract

There has been a proliferation of climate change vulnerability assessments of species, yet possibly due to their limited reproducibility, scalability, and interpretability, their operational use in applied decision-making remains paradoxically low. We use a newly developed Climate Risk Index for Biodiversity to evaluate the climate vulnerability and risk for ∼2,000 species across three ecosystems and 90 fish stocks in the northwest Atlantic Ocean, a documented global warming hotspot. We found that harvested and commercially valuable species were at significantly greater risk of exposure to hazardous climate conditions than non-harvested species, and emissions mitigation disproportionately reduced their projected exposure risk and cumulative climate risk. Of the 90 fish stocks we evaluated, 41% were at high climate risk, but this proportion dropped to 25% under emissions mitigation. Our structured framework demonstrates how climate risk can be operationalized to support short- and long-term fisheries objectives to enhance marine fisheries’ climate readiness and resilience.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

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Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.
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Posted July 20, 2022.
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Operationalizing climate risk in a global warming hotspot
Daniel G. Boyce, Derek P. Tittensor, Susanna Fuller, Stephanie Henson, Kristen Kaschner, Gabriel Reygondeau, Kathryn E. Schleit, Vincent Saba, Nancy Shackell, Ryan Stanley, Boris Worm
bioRxiv 2022.07.19.500650; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.07.19.500650
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Operationalizing climate risk in a global warming hotspot
Daniel G. Boyce, Derek P. Tittensor, Susanna Fuller, Stephanie Henson, Kristen Kaschner, Gabriel Reygondeau, Kathryn E. Schleit, Vincent Saba, Nancy Shackell, Ryan Stanley, Boris Worm
bioRxiv 2022.07.19.500650; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.07.19.500650

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