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Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial Period

View ORCID ProfileSally C. Y. Lau, View ORCID ProfileNerida G. Wilson, View ORCID ProfileNicholas R. Golledge, View ORCID ProfileTim R. Naish, View ORCID ProfilePhillip C. Watts, View ORCID ProfileCatarina N. S. Silva, View ORCID ProfileIra R. Cooke, View ORCID ProfileA. Louise Allcock, View ORCID ProfileFelix C. Mark, View ORCID ProfileKatrin Linse, View ORCID ProfileJan M. Strugnell
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.01.29.525778
Sally C. Y. Lau
1Centre for Sustainable Tropical Fisheries and Aquaculture and College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University; Townsville, Qld, Australia
2Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld, Australia
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  • For correspondence: cheukying.lau@jcu.edu.au
Nerida G. Wilson
3Collections & Research, Western Australian Museum; Welshpool, WA, Australia
4School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia; Perth, WA, Australia
5Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future, Western Australian Museum; Welshpool, WA, Australia
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Nicholas R. Golledge
6Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington; Wellington, New Zealand
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Tim R. Naish
6Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington; Wellington, New Zealand
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Phillip C. Watts
7Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä; Jyväskylä, Finland
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Catarina N. S. Silva
1Centre for Sustainable Tropical Fisheries and Aquaculture and College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University; Townsville, Qld, Australia
8Nature Research Centre; Vilnius, Lithuania
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Ira R. Cooke
9Centre for Tropical Bioinformatics and Molecular Biology, James Cook University; Townsville, Qld, Australia
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A. Louise Allcock
10School of Natural Sciences and Ryan Institute, National University of Ireland Galway; Galway, Ireland
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Felix C. Mark
11Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research; Bremerhaven, Germany
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Katrin Linse
12British Antarctic Survey; Cambridge, United Kingdom
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Jan M. Strugnell
1Centre for Sustainable Tropical Fisheries and Aquaculture and College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University; Townsville, Qld, Australia
2Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld, Australia
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Abstract

The marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered vulnerable to collapse under future climate trajectories and may even lie within the mitigated warming scenarios of 1.5–2 °C of the United Nations Paris Agreement. Knowledge of ice loss during similarly warm past climates, including the Last Interglacial period, when global sea levels were 5–10 m higher than today, and global average temperatures of 0.5–1.5 °C warmer, could resolve this uncertainty. Here we show, using a panel of genome-wide, single nucleotide polymorphisms of a circum-Antarctic octopus, persistent, historic signals of gene flow only possible with complete WAIS collapse. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that the tipping point of WAIS loss could be reached even under stringent climate mitigation scenarios.

One-Sentence Summary Historical gene flow in marine animals indicate the West Antarctic ice sheet collapsed during the Last Interglacial period.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted January 31, 2023.
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Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial Period
Sally C. Y. Lau, Nerida G. Wilson, Nicholas R. Golledge, Tim R. Naish, Phillip C. Watts, Catarina N. S. Silva, Ira R. Cooke, A. Louise Allcock, Felix C. Mark, Katrin Linse, Jan M. Strugnell
bioRxiv 2023.01.29.525778; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.01.29.525778
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Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial Period
Sally C. Y. Lau, Nerida G. Wilson, Nicholas R. Golledge, Tim R. Naish, Phillip C. Watts, Catarina N. S. Silva, Ira R. Cooke, A. Louise Allcock, Felix C. Mark, Katrin Linse, Jan M. Strugnell
bioRxiv 2023.01.29.525778; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.01.29.525778

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