Predictability of ecological and evolutionary dynamics in a changing world

Abstract

Ecological and evolutionary predictions are being increasingly employed to inform decision-makers confronted with intensifying pressures menacing life on Earth. For these efforts to effectively guide conservation actions, knowing the limit of predictability is pivotal. In this study, we provide realistic expectations about the enterprise of predicting changes in ecological and evolutionary observations through time. We begin with an intuitive explanation of predictability (that is, the extent to which predictions are possible) employing an easy-to-use metric, predictive power PP(t). To illustrate the challenge of forecasting, we then show that among insects, birds, fishes, and mammals (i) 50% of the populations are predictable at most one year in advance, and (ii) the median one-year-ahead predictive power corresponds to a sobering prediction R² of approximately 20%. Nonetheless, predictability is not an immutable property of ecological systems. For example, different harvesting strategies can impact the predictability of exploited populations to varying degrees. Moreover, considering multivariate time series, incorporating explanatory variables or accounting for time trends (environmental forcing) can enhance predictability. To effectively address the urgent challenge of biodiversity loss, researchers and practitioners must be aware of the predictive information within the available data and explore efficient ways to leverage this information for environmental stewardship.