Forecasting Dengue Fever in Brazil Using Multimodal Data, Including Climate Data

Abstract

Dengue fever is a major tropical disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Dengue affects more than 120 countries with highly variable year to year infection rates. Despite high variability, dengue has a clear relationship to climate factors and human demography. Global trends to higher temperatures and greater disorderly urban development are increasing the scale and scope of dengue risk. Dengue has complex human immunity with 4 known serotypes that make multiple infections possible. Accurate forecasting of dengue fever would allow for appropriate interventions and improved public health outcomes. We demonstrate, GeoSeeq Dengue, a forecasting model for dengue fever in Brazil. GeoSeeq Dengue predicts dengue outbreaks monthly in 5,570 Brazilian municipalities at 1, 3, and 6 months ahead of the outbreak. Model accuracy compares favorably to a historical baseline model, making it a promising model for informing public health response. We evaluate how different types of input variables effect model accuracy and explore how this model could be adapted to other countries. This model could inform public health responses to dengue including targeting vector control programs, public health education messaging, and the newly launched dengue vaccine rollout.