Abstract
The populations of Earth’s species are changing over time in complex ways, creating a mixture of winners and losers in a time of accelerating global change. A critical research challenge is to test if there are specific biomes, taxa or types of species that are experiencing rapid alterations in abundance over time. We conducted an analysis of the Living Planet Database using a state-space modelling approach including nearly 10,000 abundance time-series from over 2,000 vertebrate species. We integrated the population abundance data with information on geographic range, habitat preference, taxonomic and phylogenetic relationships, conservation status and threats from occurrence, phylogenetic and conservation assessment data. We found that 15% of populations were declining, 18% were increasing, and 67% showed no net changes in abundance over time. Against a backdrop of no biogeographic and phylogenetic patterning in population change, we uncovered a distinct taxonomic signal. Amphibians were the only taxa that experienced net declines in the analyzed data, while birds, mammals and reptiles on average became more abundant over time. The continuum of abundance changes over time was poorly captured by species’ rarity and global-scale threats. Capturing the full spectrum of abundance change of species around the planet will inform conservation efforts and improve projections of biodiversity and ecosystem function change under the accelerating influence of the Anthropocene.
Footnotes
johngodlee{at}gmail.com, isla.myers-smith{at}ed.ac.uk
We have clarified a sentence about the IUCN Green List.