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Spatial extinction date estimation: a novel method for reconstructing spatiotemporal patterns of extinction and identifying potential zones of rediscovery

View ORCID ProfileColin J. Carlson, View ORCID ProfileKevin R. Burgio, View ORCID ProfileTad A. Dallas, View ORCID ProfileAlexander L. Bond
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/279679
Colin J. Carlson
1National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, University of Maryland, Annapolis, Maryland 21401, USA.
2Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, D.C. 20057, USA.
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  • For correspondence: ccarlson@sesync.org
Kevin R. Burgio
3Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; University of Connecticut; Storrs, CT 06268, USA.
4Center for Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269 USA.
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Tad A. Dallas
5Centre for Ecological Change, University of Helsinki, 00840 Helsinki, Finland.
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Alexander L. Bond
6Bird Group, Department of Life Sciences, The Natural History Museum, Akeman Street, Tring, Hertfordshire, HP23 6AP, United Kingdom.
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Abstract

  1. The estimation of extinction dates from limited and incomplete sighting records is a key challenge in conservation (when experts are uncertain whether a species has gone extinct) and historical ecology (when the date and mechanism of extinction is controversial).

  2. We introduce a spatially-explicit method of interpolating extinction date estimators, allowing users to estimate spatiotemporal surfaces of population persistence from georeferenced sighting data of variable quality.

  3. We present the R package spatExtinct, which produces spatially-explicit extinction date surfaces from geolocated sightings, including options for custom randomization schemes to improve accuracy with limited datasets. We use simulations to illustrate the sensitivity of the method to parameterization, and apply the method to identify potential areas where Bachman’s warbler (Vermivora bachmanii) might be rediscovered.

  4. Our method, and the spatExtinct package, has the potential to help describe and differentiate different drivers of extinction for historical datasets, and could be used to identify possible regions of population persistence for species with an uncertain extinction status, improving on non-spatial or imprecise methods that are currently in use.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted March 11, 2018.
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Spatial extinction date estimation: a novel method for reconstructing spatiotemporal patterns of extinction and identifying potential zones of rediscovery
Colin J. Carlson, Kevin R. Burgio, Tad A. Dallas, Alexander L. Bond
bioRxiv 279679; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/279679
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Spatial extinction date estimation: a novel method for reconstructing spatiotemporal patterns of extinction and identifying potential zones of rediscovery
Colin J. Carlson, Kevin R. Burgio, Tad A. Dallas, Alexander L. Bond
bioRxiv 279679; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/279679

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