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A continental system for forecasting bird migration

View ORCID ProfileBenjamin M. Van Doren, View ORCID ProfileKyle G. Horton
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/293092
Benjamin M. Van Doren
1Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
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  • For correspondence: benjamin.vandoren@zoo.ox.ac.uk
Kyle G. Horton
2Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA
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Abstract

Billions of animals cross the globe each year during seasonal migrations, but efforts to monitor them are hampered by the irregularity and relative unpredictability of their movements. We developed a bird migration forecast system with continental scope by leveraging 23 years of spring observations to learn associations between atmospheric conditions and bird migration intensity. Our models explained up to 81% of variation in migration intensity across the United States at altitudes of 0-3000 m, and performance remained high when forecasting events 24-72 h into the future (68-72% variation explained). We infer that avian migratory movements across the United States frequently exceed 200 million individuals per night and exceed 500 million individuals per night during peak passage. Accurately forecasting bird migration will allow stakeholders to reduce collisions with illuminated buildings, airplanes, and wind turbines, predict movements under climate change scenarios, and engage the public.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.
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Posted April 02, 2018.
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A continental system for forecasting bird migration
Benjamin M. Van Doren, Kyle G. Horton
bioRxiv 293092; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/293092
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A continental system for forecasting bird migration
Benjamin M. Van Doren, Kyle G. Horton
bioRxiv 293092; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/293092

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