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Game theory of vaccination and depopulation for managing avian influenza on poultry farms

View ORCID ProfileAlexis Delabouglise, View ORCID ProfileMaciej F Boni
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/348813
Alexis Delabouglise
1Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, USA
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Maciej F Boni
1Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, USA
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Abstract

Highly pathogenic avian influenza is endemic in domestic poultry populations in East and South Asia and is a major threat to human health, animal health, and the poultry production industry. The behavioral response of farmers to the disease and its epidemiological effects are still poorly understood. We considered a symmetric game in a region with widespread smallholder poultry production, where the players are broiler poultry farmers and between-farm disease transmission is both environmental (local) and mediated by the trade of infected birds. Three types of farmer behaviors were modelled: vaccination, depopulation, and cessation of poultry farming. We found that the transmission level of avian influenza through trade networks had strong qualitative effects on the system’s epidemiological-economic equilibria. In the case of low trade-based transmission, when the monetary cost of infection is sufficiently high, depopulation behavior persists and maintains a disease-free equilibrium. In the case of high trade-based transmission, depopulation behavior has perverse epidemiological effects - as it accelerates the spread of disease via poultry traders - but has a high enough payoff to farmers that it persists at the system’s game theoretic equilibrium. In this situation, state interventions should focus on making effective vaccination technologies available at a low price rather than penalizing infected farms. Our results emphasize the need in endemic countries to further investigate the commercial circuits through which birds from infected farms are traded.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted June 17, 2018.
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Game theory of vaccination and depopulation for managing avian influenza on poultry farms
Alexis Delabouglise, Maciej F Boni
bioRxiv 348813; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/348813
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Game theory of vaccination and depopulation for managing avian influenza on poultry farms
Alexis Delabouglise, Maciej F Boni
bioRxiv 348813; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/348813

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