Abstract
Monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) decline over the past 25 years has received considerable public and scientific attention, in large part because its decline, and that of its milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plant, have been linked to genetically modified (GM) crops and the associated herbicide use. Therefore, the monarch has emerged as a poster child for the anti-GM movement. Here we use museum and herbaria specimens to extend our knowledge of the dynamics of both monarchs and milkweeds in the United States to more than a century, from 1900-2016. We show that monarch population trends closely follow those of their milkweed hosts; that both monarchs and milkweeds increased during the early 20th century, and that recent declines are actually part of a much longer term decline in both monarchs and milkweed beginning around 1950. Herbicide resistant crops, therefore, are clearly not the only culprit, and likely not even the primary culprit, as these declines began decades before GM crops were introduced.
