Abstract
Contact-assisted protein folding has made very good progress, but two challenges remain. One is accurate contact prediction for proteins lack of many sequence homologs and the other is that time-consuming folding simulation is often needed to predict good 3D models from predicted contacts. In this paper we show that protein distance matrix can be predicted well by deep learning and then directly used to construct 3D models without folding simulation at all. Using distance geometry to construct 3D models from our predicted distance matrices, we successfully folded 21 of the 37 CASP12 hard targets with a median family size of 58 effective sequence homologs within 4 hours on a Linux computer of 20 CPUs. In contrast, contacts predicted by direct coupling analysis (DCA) cannot fold any of them in the absence of folding simulation and the best CASP12 group folded 11 of them by integrating predicted contacts into complex, fragment-based folding simulation. The rigorous experimental validation on 15 CASP13 targets show that among the 3 hardest targets of new fold our distance-based folding servers successfully folded 2 large ones with <150 sequence homologs while the other servers failed on all three, and that our ab initio folding server also predicted the best, high-quality 3D model for a large homology modeling target. These results imply that distance-based folding is an efficient and accurate method for protein structure prediction.
