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Ensemble projections of global ocean animal biomass with climate change

View ORCID ProfileHeike K. Lotze, Derek P. Tittensor, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Tyler D. Eddy, William W. L. Cheung, Eric D. Galbraith, Manuel Barange, Nicolas Barrier, Daniele Bianchi, Julia L. Blanchard, Laurent Bopp, Matthias Büchner, Catherine Bulman, David A. Carozza, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, John Dunne, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Simon Jennings, Miranda Jones, Steve Mackinson, Olivier Maury, Susa Niiranen, Ricardo OliverosRamos, Tilla Roy, José A. Fernandes, Jacob Schewe, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tiago A. M. Silva, Jeroen Steenbeek, Charles A. Stock, Philippe Verley, Jan Volkholz, Nicola D. Walker
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/467175
Heike K. Lotze
1Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada.
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  • ORCID record for Heike K. Lotze
  • For correspondence: hlotze@dal.ca
Derek P. Tittensor
1Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada.
2UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK.
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Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz
1Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada.
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Tyler D. Eddy
1Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada.
3Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program and Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.
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William W. L. Cheung
3Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program and Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.
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Eric D. Galbraith
4Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), 08010 Barcelona, Spain.
5Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA) and Department of Mathematics, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, 08193 Barcelona, Spain.
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Manuel Barange
6Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Vialle delle Terme di Caracalla, Rome 00153, Italy.
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Nicolas Barrier
7Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR 248 MARBEC, Av Jean Monnet CS 30171, 34203 Sète cedex, France.
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Daniele Bianchi
8Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1565, USA.
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Julia L. Blanchard
9Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point TAS 7004, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.
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Laurent Bopp
10Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CNRS/CEA/UVSQ, CE Saclay, Orme des Merisiers, F-91191 Gif sur Yvette, France.
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Matthias Büchner
11Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A56, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.
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Catherine Bulman
12CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.
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David A. Carozza
13Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, 3450 University Street, Montreal, QE H3A 0E8, Canada.
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Villy Christensen
14Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.
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Marta Coll
7Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR 248 MARBEC, Av Jean Monnet CS 30171, 34203 Sète cedex, France.
15Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC) and Ecopath International Initiative, Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, nº 37-49, 08003, Barcelona, Spain.
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John Dunne
16Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.
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Elizabeth A. Fulton
12CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.
17Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania, 7004, Australia.
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Simon Jennings
18Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (CEFAS), Lowestoft Laboratory, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT, UK.
19School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK.
20International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, H. C. Andersens Blvd 46, 1553 København V, Denmark.
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Miranda Jones
3Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program and Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.
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Steve Mackinson
21Scottish Pelagic Fishermen’s Association, Heritage House, Fraserburgh, Aberdeenshire, AB43 9BP, UK.
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Olivier Maury
7Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR 248 MARBEC, Av Jean Monnet CS 30171, 34203 Sète cedex, France.
22University of Cape Town, International Lab. ICEMASA, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.
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Susa Niiranen
23Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, SE-114 19 Stockholm, Sweden.
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Ricardo OliverosRamos
24Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), Gamarra y General Valle s/n Chucuito, Callao, Perú.
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Tilla Roy
9Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point TAS 7004, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.
25ECOCEANA (Ecosystem, Climate and Ocean Analysis), 57 Rue Archereau, Paris, 75019, France.
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José A. Fernandes
26AZTI, Herrera Kaia, Portualdea, z/g, Pasaia (Gipuzkoa), 20110, Spain.
27Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth, PL13 DH, UK.
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Jacob Schewe
11Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A56, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.
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Yunne-Jai Shin
7Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR 248 MARBEC, Av Jean Monnet CS 30171, 34203 Sète cedex, France.
28University of Cape Town, Marine Research (MA-RE) Institute, Department of Biological Sciences, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.
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Tiago A. M. Silva
18Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (CEFAS), Lowestoft Laboratory, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT, UK.
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Jeroen Steenbeek
15Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC) and Ecopath International Initiative, Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, nº 37-49, 08003, Barcelona, Spain.
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Charles A. Stock
16Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.
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Philippe Verley
7Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR 248 MARBEC, Av Jean Monnet CS 30171, 34203 Sète cedex, France.
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Jan Volkholz
11Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A56, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.
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Nicola D. Walker
18Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (CEFAS), Lowestoft Laboratory, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT, UK.
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Abstract

Climate change is shifting the abundance and distribution of marine species with consequences for ecosystem functioning, seafood supply, management and conservation. Several approaches for future projection exist but these have never been compared systematically to assess their variability. We conducted standardized ensemble projections including 6 global fisheries and marine ecosystem models, forced with 2 Earth-system models and 4 emission scenarios in a fished and unfished ocean, to derive average trends and associated uncertainties. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4%) under low and 17% (±11%) under high emissions by 2100, primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production. These climate-change effects were slightly weaker for larger animals and in a fished ocean. Considerable regional variation ranged from strong biomass increases in high latitudes to strong decreases in mid-low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to differences among ecosystem or Earth-system models were similar, suggesting equal need for model improvement. Our ensemble projections provide the most comprehensive outlook on potential climate-driven ecological changes in the ocean to date. Realized future trends will largely depend on how fisheries and management adapt to these changes in a changing climate.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted November 09, 2018.
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Ensemble projections of global ocean animal biomass with climate change
Heike K. Lotze, Derek P. Tittensor, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Tyler D. Eddy, William W. L. Cheung, Eric D. Galbraith, Manuel Barange, Nicolas Barrier, Daniele Bianchi, Julia L. Blanchard, Laurent Bopp, Matthias Büchner, Catherine Bulman, David A. Carozza, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, John Dunne, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Simon Jennings, Miranda Jones, Steve Mackinson, Olivier Maury, Susa Niiranen, Ricardo OliverosRamos, Tilla Roy, José A. Fernandes, Jacob Schewe, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tiago A. M. Silva, Jeroen Steenbeek, Charles A. Stock, Philippe Verley, Jan Volkholz, Nicola D. Walker
bioRxiv 467175; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/467175
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Ensemble projections of global ocean animal biomass with climate change
Heike K. Lotze, Derek P. Tittensor, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Tyler D. Eddy, William W. L. Cheung, Eric D. Galbraith, Manuel Barange, Nicolas Barrier, Daniele Bianchi, Julia L. Blanchard, Laurent Bopp, Matthias Büchner, Catherine Bulman, David A. Carozza, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, John Dunne, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Simon Jennings, Miranda Jones, Steve Mackinson, Olivier Maury, Susa Niiranen, Ricardo OliverosRamos, Tilla Roy, José A. Fernandes, Jacob Schewe, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tiago A. M. Silva, Jeroen Steenbeek, Charles A. Stock, Philippe Verley, Jan Volkholz, Nicola D. Walker
bioRxiv 467175; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/467175

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