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Inferring phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation to climate across tree species ranges using forest inventory data

Thibaut Fréjaville, View ORCID ProfileBruno Fady, Antoine Kremer, Alexis Ducousso, Marta Benito Garzón
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/527390
Thibaut Fréjaville
1BIOGECO (UMR 1202), INRA, Univ Bordeaux, 33615 Pessac, France
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  • For correspondence: thibaut.frejaville@gmail.com
Bruno Fady
2INRA, UR629, Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (URFM), 84914 Avignon, France
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  • ORCID record for Bruno Fady
Antoine Kremer
3BIOGECO (UMR 1202), INRA, Univ Bordeaux, 33610 Cestas, France
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Alexis Ducousso
3BIOGECO (UMR 1202), INRA, Univ Bordeaux, 33610 Cestas, France
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Marta Benito Garzón
1BIOGECO (UMR 1202), INRA, Univ Bordeaux, 33615 Pessac, France
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ABSTRACT

Aim To test whether adaptive and plastic trait responses to climate across species distribution ranges can be untangled using field observations, under the rationale that, in natural forest tree populations, long-term climate shapes local adaptation while recent climate change drives phenotypic plasticity.

Location Europe.

Time period 1901-2014.

Taxa Silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) and sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.).

Methods We estimated the variation of individual tree height as a function of long-term and short-term climates to tease apart local adaptation, plasticity and their interaction, using mixed-effect models calibrated with National Forest Inventory data (in-situ models). To validate our approach, we tested the ability of in-situ models to predict independently tree height observations in common gardens where local adaptation to climate of populations and their plasticity can be measured and separated. In-situ model predictions of tree height variation among provenances (populations of different geographical origin) and among planting sites were compared to observations in common gardens and to predictions from a similar model calibrated using common garden data (ex-situ model).

Results In Q. petraea, we found high correlations between in-situ and ex-situ model predictions of provenance and plasticity effects and their interaction on tree height (r > 0.80). We showed that the in-situ models significantly predicted tree height variation among provenances and sites for Abies alba and Quercus petraea. Spatial predictions of phenotypic plasticity across species distribution ranges indicate decreasing tree height in populations of warmer climates in response to recent anthropogenic climate warming.

Main conclusions Our modelling approach using National Forest Inventory observations provides a new perspective for understanding patterns of intraspecific trait variation across species ranges. Its application is particularly interesting for species for which common garden experiments do not exist or do not cover the entire climatic range of the species.

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted January 23, 2019.
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Inferring phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation to climate across tree species ranges using forest inventory data
Thibaut Fréjaville, Bruno Fady, Antoine Kremer, Alexis Ducousso, Marta Benito Garzón
bioRxiv 527390; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/527390
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Inferring phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation to climate across tree species ranges using forest inventory data
Thibaut Fréjaville, Bruno Fady, Antoine Kremer, Alexis Ducousso, Marta Benito Garzón
bioRxiv 527390; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/527390

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