Contradictory Results
No evidence for disruption of global patterns of nest predation in shorebirds
View ORCID ProfileMartin Bulla, Jeroen Reneerkens, Emily L. Weiser, Aleksandr Sokolov, Audrey R. Taylor, Benoît Sittler, Brian J. McCaffery, Dan R. Ruthrauff, Daniel H. Catlin, David C. Payer, David H. Ward, Diana V. Solovyeva, Eduardo S.A. Santos, Eldar Rakhimberdiev, Erica Nol, Eunbi Kwon, Glen S. Brown, Glenda D. Hevia, H. River Gates, James A. Johnson, Jan A. van Gils, Jannik Hansen, Jean-François Lamarre, Jennie Rausch, Jesse R. Conklin, Joe Liebezeit, Joёl Bêty, Johannes Lang, José A. Alves, Juan Fernández-Elipe, Klaus Michael-Exo, Loïc Bollache, Marcelo Bertellotti, Marie-Andrée Giroux, Martijn van de Pol, Matthew Johnson, Megan L. Boldenow, Mihai Valcu, Mikhail Soloviev, Natalya Sokolova, Nathan R. Senner, Nicolas Lecomte, Nicolas Meyer, Niels Martin Schmidt, Olivier Gilg, Paul A. Smith, Paula Machín, Rebecca L. McGuire, Ricardo A.S. Cerboncini, Richard Ottvall, Rob S.A. van Bemmelen, Rose J. Swift, Sarah T. Saalfeld, Sarah E. Jamieson, Stephen Brown, Theunis Piersma, Tomas Albrecht, Verónica D’Amico, Richard B. Lanctot, View ORCID ProfileBart Kempenaers
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/601047
Martin Bulla
Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Department of Behavioural Ecology & Evolutionary Genetics, E Gwinner Str., 82319 Seewiesen, GermanyNIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Department of Coastal Systems and Utrecht University, PO Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg, Texel, The NetherlandsCzech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Kamýcká 129, 16521 Prague, Czech Republic
Jeroen Reneerkens
NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Department of Coastal Systems and Utrecht University, PO Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg, Texel, The NetherlandsGroningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences (GELIFES), University of Groningen, Conservation Ecology Group, P.O. Box 11103, 9700 CC Groningen, The Netherlands
Emily L. Weiser
U.S. Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, 2630 Fanta Reed Rd, La Crosse, WI 54603, U.S.A.
Aleksandr Sokolov
Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Arctic research station, Zelenaya Gorka, 21, 629400, Labytnangi, Russia
Audrey R. Taylor
University of Alaska Anchorage, Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, 3211 Providence Drive, 99508, Anchorage, U.S.A
Benoît Sittler
University of Freiburg, Nature Conservation and Landscape Ecology, Tennenbacher Str. 4, 79106, Freiburg, GermanyArctic Ecology Research Group (GREA), 16 rue de Vernot, F-21440, Francheville, France
Brian J. McCaffery
US Fish and Wildlife Service, Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge, 53980 County Highway D, 54839, Grand View, U.S.A
Dan R. Ruthrauff
US Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, 4210 University Dr., 99508, Anchorage, U.S.A
Daniel H. Catlin
Virginia Tech, Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, 310 West Campus Drive, 24061, Blacksburg, U.S.A
David C. Payer
National Park Service, Natural Resource Sciences, 240 W 5th Ave., 99501, Anchorage, U.S.A
David H. Ward
US Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, 4210 University Dr., 99508, Anchorage, U.S.A
Diana V. Solovyeva
Institute of Biological Problems of the North, FEB RAS, 18 Portovaya, Magadan, 685000, Russia
Eduardo S.A. Santos
Universidade de São Paulo, BECO do Departamento de Zoologia, Rua do Matão, Trav. 14, n° 101, 05508-090, São Paulo, Brazil
Eldar Rakhimberdiev
Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences (GELIFES), University of Groningen, Conservation Ecology Group, P.O. Box 11103, 9700 CC Groningen, The NetherlandsLomonosov Moscow State University, Department of Vertebrate Zoology, Leninskiye Gory 1/12, 119234, Moscow, Russia
Erica Nol
Trent University, Biology Department, 2140 East Bank Drive, K9J 7B8, Peterborough, Canada
Eunbi Kwon
Virginia Tech, Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, 310 West Campus Drive, 24061, Blacksburg, U.S.A
Glen S. Brown
Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Wildlife Research and Monitoring, 2140 East Bank Drive, K9L 1Z8, Peterborough, Canada
Glenda D. Hevia
Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos (CESIMAR)-CCT CONICET-CENPAT, Grupo de Ecofisiología Aplicada al Manejo y Conservación de Fauna Silvestre, Bvd. Brown 2915, 9120, Puerto Madryn, Argentina
H. River Gates
National Audubon Society, Pacific Flyway Program, 431 W 7th Ave #101, 99501, Anchorage, U.S.A
James A. Johnson
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Migratory Bird Management, 1011 East Tudor Road, 99503, Anchorage, U.S.A
Jan A. van Gils
NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Department of Coastal Systems and Utrecht University, PO Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg, Texel, The Netherlands
Jannik Hansen
Aarhus University, Department of Bioscience, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000, Roskilde, Denmark
Jean-François Lamarre
Polar Knowledge Canada, Science & Technology Program, 1 Uvajuq Place, X0B0C0, Cambridge Bay, Canada
Jennie Rausch
Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, P.O. Box 2310, X1A 2P7, Yellowknife, Canada
Jesse R. Conklin
Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences (GELIFES), University of Groningen, Conservation Ecology Group, P.O. Box 11103, 9700 CC Groningen, The Netherlands
Joe Liebezeit
Audubon Society of Portland, 5151 NW Cornell Road, 97210, Portland, U.S.A
Joёl Bêty
University of Quebec at Rimouski, Department of Biology and Center for Northern Studies, 300 Allee des ursulines, G5L 3A1, Rimouski, Canada
Johannes Lang
Arctic Ecology Research Group (GREA), 16 rue de Vernot, F-21440, Francheville, FranceGiessen University, Clinic for Birds, Reptiles, Amphibians and Fish / Working Group for Wildlife Biology, Frankfurter Str. 91-93, 35392, Giessen, Germany
José A. Alves
DBIO & CESAM-Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies, Department of Biology, University of Aveiro, 3810-193, Aveiro, PortugalSouth Iceland Research Centre, University of Iceland, Fjolheimar IS-800 Selfoss & IS-861 Gunnarsholt, Iceland
Juan Fernández-Elipe
Aptdo.correos 32, 5480, Candeleda, Spain
Klaus Michael-Exo
Institute of Avian Research “Vogelwarte Helgoland”, An der Vogelwarte 21, 26386, Wilhelmshaven, Germany
Loïc Bollache
Université de Franche-Comté, Laboratoire Chrono-environnement, UMR 6249 CNRS-UFC, F-25000, Besançon, France
Marcelo Bertellotti
Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos (CESIMAR)-CCT CONICET-CENPAT, Grupo de Ecofisiología Aplicada al Manejo y Conservación de Fauna Silvestre, Bvd. Brown 2915, 9120, Puerto Madryn, Argentina
Marie-Andrée Giroux
Université de Moncton, Faculty of Sciences, K.-C.-Irving Research Chair in Environmental Sciences and Sustainable Development, 18 avenue Antonine-Maillet, E1A 3E9, Moncton, Canada
Martijn van de Pol
Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Department of Animal Ecology, Droevendaalsesteeg 10, 6708PB, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Matthew Johnson
USDA Forest Service, Plumas National Forest, 159 Lawrence Street, 95971, Quincy, U.S.A
Megan L. Boldenow
University of Alaska Fairbanks, Biology and Wildlife Department, 2090 Koyukuk Drive, 99775, Fairbanks, U.S.A
Mihai Valcu
Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Department of Behavioural Ecology & Evolutionary Genetics, E Gwinner Str., 82319 Seewiesen, Germany
Mikhail Soloviev
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Department of Vertebrate Zoology, Leninskiye Gory 1/12, 119234, Moscow, Russia
Natalya Sokolova
Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Arctic research station, Zelenaya Gorka, 21, 629400, Labytnangi, Russia
Nathan R. Senner
University of South Carolina, Department of Biological Sciences, 715 Sumter Street, 29208, Columbia, U.S.A
Nicolas Lecomte
Uninversité de Moncton, Department of Biology and Canada Research Chair in Polar and Boreal Ecology, 18, Antonine-Maillet, E1A 3E9, Moncton, Canada
Nicolas Meyer
Arctic Ecology Research Group (GREA), 16 rue de Vernot, F-21440, Francheville, FranceUniversité de Franche-Comté, Laboratoire Chrono-environnement, UMR 6249 CNRS-UFC, F-25000, Besançon, France
Niels Martin Schmidt
Aarhus University, Department of Bioscience, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000, Roskilde, DenmarkAarhus University, Arctic Research Centre, Ny Munkegade 114, 8000, Aarhus C, Denmark
Olivier Gilg
Arctic Ecology Research Group (GREA), 16 rue de Vernot, F-21440, Francheville, FranceUniversité de Franche-Comté, Laboratoire Chrono-environnement, UMR 6249 CNRS-UFC, F-25000, Besançon, France
Paul A. Smith
Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, 1125 Colonel By Dr, K1S 5B6, Ottawa, Canada
Paula Machín
Aptdo.correos 32, 5480, Candeleda, Spain
Rebecca L. McGuire
Wildlife Conservation Society, Arctic Beringia Program, 3550 Airport Way, Unit 5, 99709, Fairbanks, U.S.A
Ricardo A.S. Cerboncini
Universidade Federal do Paraná, Departamento de Zoologia, Av. Coronel Francisco H. dos Santos 100, 81531-980, Curitiba, Brazil
Richard Ottvall
Frostavallsv 325, S-24393, Hoor, Sweden
Rob S.A. van Bemmelen
Wageningen Marine Research, Haringkade 1, 1976CP, IJmuiden, the Netherlands
Rose J. Swift
Cornell University, Cornell Lab of Ornithology and Department of Natural Resources, 159 Sapsucker Woods Rd, 14850, Ithaca, U.S.A
Sarah T. Saalfeld
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Migratory Bird Management, 1011 East Tudor Road, 99503, Anchorage, U.S.A
Sarah E. Jamieson
Simon Fraser University, Centre for Wildlife Ecology, 8888 University Dr, V5A1S6, Burnaby, Canada
Stephen Brown
Manomet Inc., Shorebird Recovery Program, PO Box 545, 05154, Saxtons River, U.S.A
Theunis Piersma
NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Department of Coastal Systems and Utrecht University, PO Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg, Texel, The NetherlandsGroningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences (GELIFES), University of Groningen, Conservation Ecology Group, P.O. Box 11103, 9700 CC Groningen, The Netherlands
Tomas Albrecht
Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Vertebrate Biology, Kvetna 8, 60300, Brno, Czech RepublicCharles University, Faculty of Science, 128 44 Prague, Czech Republic
Verónica D’Amico
Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos (CESIMAR)-CCT CONICET-CENPAT, Grupo de Ecofisiología Aplicada al Manejo y Conservación de Fauna Silvestre, Bvd. Brown 2915, 9120, Puerto Madryn, Argentina
Richard B. Lanctot
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Migratory Bird Management, 1011 East Tudor Road, 99503, Anchorage, U.S.A
Bart Kempenaers
Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Department of Behavioural Ecology & Evolutionary Genetics, E Gwinner Str., 82319 Seewiesen, Germany
Abstract
Kubelka et al. (Science, 9 November 2018, p. 680-683) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims.
Footnotes
↵† These authors formed the core team behind the Technical Comment. The remaining authors are listed alphabetically according to their first name.
Adjusted the structure of the manuscript to ensure that bioRxiv headings do not overlay the original text, and that the subsections in the full-text version are labelled correctly.
Copyright
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license.
Posted May 08, 2019.
No evidence for disruption of global patterns of nest predation in shorebirds
Martin Bulla, Jeroen Reneerkens, Emily L. Weiser, Aleksandr Sokolov, Audrey R. Taylor, Benoît Sittler, Brian J. McCaffery, Dan R. Ruthrauff, Daniel H. Catlin, David C. Payer, David H. Ward, Diana V. Solovyeva, Eduardo S.A. Santos, Eldar Rakhimberdiev, Erica Nol, Eunbi Kwon, Glen S. Brown, Glenda D. Hevia, H. River Gates, James A. Johnson, Jan A. van Gils, Jannik Hansen, Jean-François Lamarre, Jennie Rausch, Jesse R. Conklin, Joe Liebezeit, Joёl Bêty, Johannes Lang, José A. Alves, Juan Fernández-Elipe, Klaus Michael-Exo, Loïc Bollache, Marcelo Bertellotti, Marie-Andrée Giroux, Martijn van de Pol, Matthew Johnson, Megan L. Boldenow, Mihai Valcu, Mikhail Soloviev, Natalya Sokolova, Nathan R. Senner, Nicolas Lecomte, Nicolas Meyer, Niels Martin Schmidt, Olivier Gilg, Paul A. Smith, Paula Machín, Rebecca L. McGuire, Ricardo A.S. Cerboncini, Richard Ottvall, Rob S.A. van Bemmelen, Rose J. Swift, Sarah T. Saalfeld, Sarah E. Jamieson, Stephen Brown, Theunis Piersma, Tomas Albrecht, Verónica D’Amico, Richard B. Lanctot, Bart Kempenaers
bioRxiv 601047; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/601047
No evidence for disruption of global patterns of nest predation in shorebirds
Martin Bulla, Jeroen Reneerkens, Emily L. Weiser, Aleksandr Sokolov, Audrey R. Taylor, Benoît Sittler, Brian J. McCaffery, Dan R. Ruthrauff, Daniel H. Catlin, David C. Payer, David H. Ward, Diana V. Solovyeva, Eduardo S.A. Santos, Eldar Rakhimberdiev, Erica Nol, Eunbi Kwon, Glen S. Brown, Glenda D. Hevia, H. River Gates, James A. Johnson, Jan A. van Gils, Jannik Hansen, Jean-François Lamarre, Jennie Rausch, Jesse R. Conklin, Joe Liebezeit, Joёl Bêty, Johannes Lang, José A. Alves, Juan Fernández-Elipe, Klaus Michael-Exo, Loïc Bollache, Marcelo Bertellotti, Marie-Andrée Giroux, Martijn van de Pol, Matthew Johnson, Megan L. Boldenow, Mihai Valcu, Mikhail Soloviev, Natalya Sokolova, Nathan R. Senner, Nicolas Lecomte, Nicolas Meyer, Niels Martin Schmidt, Olivier Gilg, Paul A. Smith, Paula Machín, Rebecca L. McGuire, Ricardo A.S. Cerboncini, Richard Ottvall, Rob S.A. van Bemmelen, Rose J. Swift, Sarah T. Saalfeld, Sarah E. Jamieson, Stephen Brown, Theunis Piersma, Tomas Albrecht, Verónica D’Amico, Richard B. Lanctot, Bart Kempenaers
bioRxiv 601047; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/601047
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