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Tracking progress towards malaria elimination in China: estimates of reproduction numbers and their spatiotemporal variation

View ORCID ProfileIsobel Routledge, Shengjie Lai, Katherine E Battle, Azra C Ghani, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez, Kyle B Gustafson, Swapnil Mishra, Joshua L Proctor, Andrew J Tatem, Zhongjie Li, Samir Bhatt
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/628842
Isobel Routledge
1Imperial College London
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  • For correspondence: i.routledge15@imperial.ac.uk
Shengjie Lai
2University of Southampton
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Katherine E Battle
3University of Oxford
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Azra C Ghani
1Imperial College London
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Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez
4Max Planck Institute for Software Systems
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Kyle B Gustafson
5United States Department of the Navy
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Swapnil Mishra
6Australian National University
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Joshua L Proctor
7Institute for Disease Modeling
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Andrew J Tatem
2University of Southampton
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Zhongjie Li
8Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
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Samir Bhatt
1Imperial College London
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Abstract

China reported zero locally-acquired malaria cases in 2017 and 2018. Understanding the spatio-temporal pattern underlying this decline, especially the relationship between locally-acquired and imported cases, can inform efforts to maintain elimination and prevent re-emergence. This is particularly pertinent in Yunnan province, where the potential for local transmission is highest. Using a geo-located individual-level dataset of cases recorded in Yunnan province between 2011 and 2016, we jointly estimate the case reproduction number, Rc, and the number of unobserved sources of infection. We use these estimates within spatio-temporal geostatistical models to map how transmission varied over time and space, estimate the timeline to elimination and the risk of resurgence. Our estimates suggest that, maintaining current intervention efforts, Yunnan is unlikely to experience sustained local transmission up to 2020. However, even with a mean Rc of 0.005 projected for the year 2019, locally-acquired cases are possible due to high levels of importation.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted May 10, 2019.
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Tracking progress towards malaria elimination in China: estimates of reproduction numbers and their spatiotemporal variation
Isobel Routledge, Shengjie Lai, Katherine E Battle, Azra C Ghani, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez, Kyle B Gustafson, Swapnil Mishra, Joshua L Proctor, Andrew J Tatem, Zhongjie Li, Samir Bhatt
bioRxiv 628842; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/628842
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Tracking progress towards malaria elimination in China: estimates of reproduction numbers and their spatiotemporal variation
Isobel Routledge, Shengjie Lai, Katherine E Battle, Azra C Ghani, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez, Kyle B Gustafson, Swapnil Mishra, Joshua L Proctor, Andrew J Tatem, Zhongjie Li, Samir Bhatt
bioRxiv 628842; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/628842

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