Skip to main content
bioRxiv
  • Home
  • About
  • Submit
  • ALERTS / RSS
Advanced Search
New Results

Comparing statistical and mechanistic models to identify the drivers of mortality within a rear-edge beech population

View ORCID ProfileCathleen Petit-Cailleux, Hendrik Davi, François Lefèvre, Joseph Garrigue, Jean-André Magdalou, Christophe Hurson, Elodie Magnanou, View ORCID ProfileSylvie Oddou-Muratorio
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/645747
Cathleen Petit-Cailleux
1INRAE, URFM, Avignon, France
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Cathleen Petit-Cailleux
Hendrik Davi
1INRAE, URFM, Avignon, France
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
François Lefèvre
1INRAE, URFM, Avignon, France
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Joseph Garrigue
2Réserve Naturelle Nationale de la Forêt de la Massane, France
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Jean-André Magdalou
2Réserve Naturelle Nationale de la Forêt de la Massane, France
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Christophe Hurson
2Réserve Naturelle Nationale de la Forêt de la Massane, France
3Fédération des Réserves Naturelles Catalanes, Prades, France
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Elodie Magnanou
2Réserve Naturelle Nationale de la Forêt de la Massane, France
4Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Biologie Intégrative des Organismes Marins, BIOM, F-66650 Banyuls-sur-Mer, France
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Sylvie Oddou-Muratorio
1INRAE, URFM, Avignon, France
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • ORCID record for Sylvie Oddou-Muratorio
  • For correspondence: sylvie.muratorio@inrae.fr
  • Abstract
  • Full Text
  • Info/History
  • Metrics
  • Supplementary material
  • Data/Code
  • Preview PDF
Loading

Abstract

Since several studies have been reporting an increase in the decline of forests, a major issue in ecology is to better understand and predict tree mortality. The interactions between the different factors and the physiological processes giving rise tree mortality, as well as the inter-individual variability in mortality risk, still need to be better assessed.

This study investigates mortality in a rear-edge population of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) using a combination of statistical and process-based modelling approaches. Based on a survey of 4323 adult beeches since 2002 within a natural reserve, we first used statistical models to quantify the effects of competition, tree growth, size, defoliation and fungi presence on mortality. Secondly, we used an ecophysiological process-based model (PBM) to separate out the different mechanisms giving rise to temporal and inter-individual variations in mortality by simulating depletion of carbon stocks, loss of hydraulic conductance and damage due to late frosts in response to climate.

The combination of all these simulated processes was associated with the temporal variations in the population mortality rate. The individual probability of mortality decreased with increasing mean growth, and increased with increasing crown defoliation, earliness of budburst, fungi presence and increasing competition, in the statistical model. Moreover, the interaction between tree size and defoliation was significant, indicating a stronger increase in mortality associated to defoliation in smaller than larger trees. Finally, the PBM predicted a higher conductance loss together with a higher level of carbon reserves for trees with earlier budburst, while the ability to defoliate the crown was found to limit the impact of hydraulic stress at the expense of the accumulation of carbon reserves.

We discuss the convergences and divergences obtained between statistical and process-based approaches and we highlight the importance of combining them to characterize the different processes underlying mortality, and the factors modulating individual vulnerability to mortality.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Footnotes

  • This is version 7 of the manuscript, peer-reviewed and recommended by PCI Ecology (2020).

  • https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3519315

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.
Back to top
PreviousNext
Posted January 05, 2021.
Download PDF

Supplementary Material

Data/Code
Email

Thank you for your interest in spreading the word about bioRxiv.

NOTE: Your email address is requested solely to identify you as the sender of this article.

Enter multiple addresses on separate lines or separate them with commas.
Comparing statistical and mechanistic models to identify the drivers of mortality within a rear-edge beech population
(Your Name) has forwarded a page to you from bioRxiv
(Your Name) thought you would like to see this page from the bioRxiv website.
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.
Share
Comparing statistical and mechanistic models to identify the drivers of mortality within a rear-edge beech population
Cathleen Petit-Cailleux, Hendrik Davi, François Lefèvre, Joseph Garrigue, Jean-André Magdalou, Christophe Hurson, Elodie Magnanou, Sylvie Oddou-Muratorio
bioRxiv 645747; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/645747
Reddit logo Twitter logo Facebook logo LinkedIn logo Mendeley logo
Citation Tools
Comparing statistical and mechanistic models to identify the drivers of mortality within a rear-edge beech population
Cathleen Petit-Cailleux, Hendrik Davi, François Lefèvre, Joseph Garrigue, Jean-André Magdalou, Christophe Hurson, Elodie Magnanou, Sylvie Oddou-Muratorio
bioRxiv 645747; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/645747

Citation Manager Formats

  • BibTeX
  • Bookends
  • EasyBib
  • EndNote (tagged)
  • EndNote 8 (xml)
  • Medlars
  • Mendeley
  • Papers
  • RefWorks Tagged
  • Ref Manager
  • RIS
  • Zotero
  • Tweet Widget
  • Facebook Like
  • Google Plus One

Subject Area

  • Ecology
Subject Areas
All Articles
  • Animal Behavior and Cognition (4397)
  • Biochemistry (9630)
  • Bioengineering (7123)
  • Bioinformatics (24939)
  • Biophysics (12671)
  • Cancer Biology (9995)
  • Cell Biology (14404)
  • Clinical Trials (138)
  • Developmental Biology (7989)
  • Ecology (12148)
  • Epidemiology (2067)
  • Evolutionary Biology (16026)
  • Genetics (10952)
  • Genomics (14778)
  • Immunology (9906)
  • Microbiology (23739)
  • Molecular Biology (9506)
  • Neuroscience (51052)
  • Paleontology (370)
  • Pathology (1545)
  • Pharmacology and Toxicology (2693)
  • Physiology (4038)
  • Plant Biology (8693)
  • Scientific Communication and Education (1512)
  • Synthetic Biology (2404)
  • Systems Biology (6459)
  • Zoology (1350)