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The next Zika virus outbreak will affect young women of reproductive age disproportionately: mathematical modeling study

View ORCID ProfileMichel J. Counotte, View ORCID ProfileChristian L. Althaus, View ORCID ProfileNicola Low, View ORCID ProfileJulien Riou
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/661223
Michel J. Counotte
1Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
2Graduate School for Cellular and Biomedical Sciences, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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  • For correspondence: michel.counotte@ispm.unibe.ch
Christian L. Althaus
1Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Nicola Low
1Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Julien Riou
1Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Abstract

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus. In 2016, Managua, the capital city of Nicaragua experienced a Zika virus outbreak. Amongst confirmed cases, seropositivity increased with age and >50% of the adult population had ZIKV antibodies. The duration of immunity to ZIKV remains unclear. We used an agent-based model in a Bayesian framework to describe the dynamics of immunity to ZIKV, and predict the future age-specific risk of ZIKV infection in the population of Managua. We also investigated the potential impact of a ZIKV vaccine under different assumptions about the persistence of immunity. Assuming lifelong immunity, the risk of a ZIKV outbreak will remain low until 2035 and rise above 50% in 2047. Young women of reproductive age will be at highest risk of infection during the next ZIKV outbreak. ZIKV vaccine development and licensure are urgent, to attain the maximum benefit in reducing the population-level risk of infection and the risk of adverse congenital outcomes.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.
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Posted June 07, 2019.
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The next Zika virus outbreak will affect young women of reproductive age disproportionately: mathematical modeling study
Michel J. Counotte, Christian L. Althaus, Nicola Low, Julien Riou
bioRxiv 661223; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/661223
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The next Zika virus outbreak will affect young women of reproductive age disproportionately: mathematical modeling study
Michel J. Counotte, Christian L. Althaus, Nicola Low, Julien Riou
bioRxiv 661223; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/661223

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