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A young age of subspecific divergence in the desert locust Schistocerca gregaria, inferred by ABC Random Forest

Marie-Pierre Chapuis, Louis Raynal, Christophe Plantamp, Christine N. Meynard, Laurence Blondin, Jean-Michel Marin, Arnaud Estoup
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/671867
Marie-Pierre Chapuis
1CIRAD, CBGP, Montpellier, France
2CBGP, CIRAD, INRAE, IRD, Montpellier SupAgro, Univ Montpellier, Montpellier, France
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  • For correspondence: marie-pierre.chapuis@cirad.fr
Louis Raynal
3IMAG, Univ de Montpellier, CNRS, Montpellier, France
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Christophe Plantamp
4ANSES, Laboratoire de Lyon, France
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Christine N. Meynard
5CBGP, INRAE, CIRAD, IRD, Montpellier SupAgro, Univ Montpellier, Montpellier, France
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Laurence Blondin
6CIRAD, BGPI, Montpellier, France
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Jean-Michel Marin
3IMAG, Univ de Montpellier, CNRS, Montpellier, France
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Arnaud Estoup
5CBGP, INRAE, CIRAD, IRD, Montpellier SupAgro, Univ Montpellier, Montpellier, France
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Abstract

Dating population divergence within species from molecular data and relating such dating to climatic and biogeographic changes is not trivial. Yet it can help formulating evolutionary hypotheses regarding local adaptation and future responses to changing environments. Key issues include statistical selection of a demographic and historical scenario among a set of possible scenarios, and estimation of the parameter(s) of interest under the chosen scenario. Such inferences greatly benefit from new statistical approaches including approximate Bayesian computation - Random Forest (ABC-RF), the latter providing reliable inference at a low computational cost, with the possibility to take into account prior knowledge on both biogeographical history and genetic markers. Here, we used ABC-RF, including independent information on evolutionary rate and pattern at microsatellite markers, to decipher the evolutionary history of the African arid-adapted pest locust, Schistocerca gregaria. We found that the evolutionary processes that have shaped the present geographical distribution of the species in two disjoint northern and southern regions of Africa were recent, dating back 2.6 Ky (90% CI: 0.9 – 6.6 Ky). ABC-RF inferences also supported a southern colonization of Africa from a low number of founders of northern origin. The inferred divergence history is better explained by the peculiar biology of S. gregaria, which involves a density-dependent swarming phase with some exceptional spectacular migrations, rather than a continuous colonization resulting from the continental expansion of open vegetation habitats during more ancient Quaternary glacial climatic episodes.

Footnotes

  • The Version 4 of this preprint has been peer-reviewed (by three reviewers), recommended by Peer Community In Evolutionary Biology (https://doi.org/10.24072/pci.evolbiol.100091), and formatted following the PCI Evol Biol template. Typos in some mathematical formula of the Supplementary Material S3 have been also corrected.

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted January 16, 2020.
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A young age of subspecific divergence in the desert locust Schistocerca gregaria, inferred by ABC Random Forest
Marie-Pierre Chapuis, Louis Raynal, Christophe Plantamp, Christine N. Meynard, Laurence Blondin, Jean-Michel Marin, Arnaud Estoup
bioRxiv 671867; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/671867
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A young age of subspecific divergence in the desert locust Schistocerca gregaria, inferred by ABC Random Forest
Marie-Pierre Chapuis, Louis Raynal, Christophe Plantamp, Christine N. Meynard, Laurence Blondin, Jean-Michel Marin, Arnaud Estoup
bioRxiv 671867; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/671867

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