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Extinction and the temporal distribution of macroevolutionary bursts

Stephen P. De Lisle, David Punzalan, Njal Rollinson, Locke Rowe
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/725689
Stephen P. De Lisle
1Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, 75 N. Eagleville Road Storrs, Connecticut 06269
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  • For correspondence: stephen.de_lisle@uconn.edu
David Punzalan
2Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, 25 Willcocks St. Toronto, Canada M5S 3B2
3Department of Natural History, Royal Ontario Museum, 100 Queens Park, Toronto, Canada, M5S 2C6
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Njal Rollinson
2Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, 25 Willcocks St. Toronto, Canada M5S 3B2
4School of the Environment, University of Toronto, 33 Willcocks St. Toronto, Canada, M5S 3B8
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Locke Rowe
2Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, 25 Willcocks St. Toronto, Canada M5S 3B2
3Department of Natural History, Royal Ontario Museum, 100 Queens Park, Toronto, Canada, M5S 2C6
5Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study, Thunbergsvägen 2, SE-752 38 Uppsala, Sweden
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ABSTRACT

Phenotypic evolution through deep time is slower than expected from microevolutionary rates. This is the paradox of stasis. Previous models suggest stasis occurs because populations track adaptive peaks that typically move on million-year intervals, raising the equally perplexing question of why peaks shifts are so rare. Here, we consider the possibility that peaks can move more rapidly than populations can adapt, resulting in extinction. We model peak movement with explicit population dynamics, parameterized with published microevolutionary parameters. Allowing extinction greatly increases the parameter space of peak movements that yield the appearance of stasis observed in real data through deep time. Our work highlights population ecology as an important contributor to macroevolutionary dynamics, presenting an alternative perspective on the paradox of stasis where apparent constraint on phenotypic evolution in deep time reflects our restricted view of the subset of earth’s lineages that were fortunate enough to reside on relatively stable peaks.

Footnotes

  • DATA AVAILABILITY: All data and code are presented in the supplementary material and upon acceptance will be archived in an appropriate public repository (e.g. Dryad) and the data DOI will be included at the end of the article

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license.
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Posted August 05, 2019.
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Extinction and the temporal distribution of macroevolutionary bursts
Stephen P. De Lisle, David Punzalan, Njal Rollinson, Locke Rowe
bioRxiv 725689; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/725689
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Extinction and the temporal distribution of macroevolutionary bursts
Stephen P. De Lisle, David Punzalan, Njal Rollinson, Locke Rowe
bioRxiv 725689; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/725689

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