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Rethinking global carbon storage potential of trees. A comment on Bastin et al. 2019

View ORCID ProfileShawn D. Taylor, View ORCID ProfileSergio Marconi
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/730325
Shawn D. Taylor
1School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Florida Gainesville, Florida, United States
2U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Jornada Experimental Range, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico, United States
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  • For correspondence: shawntaylor@weecology.org
Sergio Marconi
1School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Florida Gainesville, Florida, United States
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Abstract

Key Message Bastin et al. 2019 used flawed assumptions in calculating the carbon storage of restored forests worldwide, resulting in a gross overestimate.

Context Bastin et al. 2019 use two flawed assumptions: 1) that the area suitable for restoration does not contain any carbon currently, and 2) that soil organic carbon (SOC) from increased canopy cover will accumulate quickly enough to mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions.

Aims We re-evaluated the potential carbon storage worldwide using empirical relationships of tree cover and carbon.

Methods and Results We use global datasets of tree cover, soil organic carbon, and above ground biomass to estimate the empirical relationships of tree cover and carbon stock storage. A more realistic range of global carbon storage potential is between 71.7 and 75.7 GtC globally, with a large uncertainty associated with SOC. This is less than half of the original 205 GtC estimate.

Conclusion The potential global carbon storage of restored forests is much less than that estimated by Bastin et al. 2019. While we agree on the value of assessing global reforestation potential, we suggest caution in considering it the most effective strategy to mitigate anthropogenic emissions.

Footnotes

  • Updated to include references to Science comments.

  • https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3364028

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.
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Posted December 13, 2019.
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Rethinking global carbon storage potential of trees. A comment on Bastin et al. 2019
Shawn D. Taylor, Sergio Marconi
bioRxiv 730325; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/730325
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Rethinking global carbon storage potential of trees. A comment on Bastin et al. 2019
Shawn D. Taylor, Sergio Marconi
bioRxiv 730325; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/730325

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