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Diapause is not selected as a bet-hedging strategy in insects: a meta-analysis of reaction norm shapes

View ORCID ProfileJens Joschinski, View ORCID ProfileDries Bonte
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/752881
Jens Joschinski
Terrestrial Ecology Unit (TEREC), Department of Biology, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
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  • For correspondence: Jens.joschinski@ugent.be
Dries Bonte
Terrestrial Ecology Unit (TEREC), Department of Biology, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
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Abstract

Many organisms escape from lethal climatological conditions by entering a resistant resting stage called diapause, which needs to be optimally timed with seasonal change. As climate change exerts selection pressure on phenology, the evolution of mean diapause timing, but also of phenotypic plasticity and bet-hedging strategies is expected. Especially the latter as a strategy to cope with unpredictability is little considered in the context of climate change.

Contemporary patterns of phenological strategies across a geographic range may provide information about their evolvability. We thus extracted 458 diapause reaction norms from 60 studies. First, we correlated mean diapause timing with mean winter onset. Then we partitioned the reaction norm variance into a temporal component (phenotypic plasticity) and among-offspring variance (diversified bet-hedging) and correlated this variance composition with predictability of winter onset. Mean diapause timing correlated reasonably well with mean winter onset, except for populations at high latitudes, which apparently failed to track early onsets. Variance among offspring was, however, limited and correlated only weakly with environmental predictability, indicating little scope for bet-hedging. The apparent lack of phenological bet-hedging strategies may pose a risk in a less predictable climate, but we also highlight the need for more data on alternative strategies.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Footnotes

  • ↵1 Jens.joschinski{at}ugent.be

  • ↵2 Dries.Bonte{at}ugent.be

  • After some constructive criticism of our interpretation we now discuss the limitations of our approach in more detail.

  • https://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.9kd51c5d1

Copyright 
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.
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Posted August 24, 2020.
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Diapause is not selected as a bet-hedging strategy in insects: a meta-analysis of reaction norm shapes
Jens Joschinski, Dries Bonte
bioRxiv 752881; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/752881
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Diapause is not selected as a bet-hedging strategy in insects: a meta-analysis of reaction norm shapes
Jens Joschinski, Dries Bonte
bioRxiv 752881; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/752881

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