Abstract
Models predicting disease transmission are a vital tool in the control of mosquito populations and malaria reduction as they can target intervention efforts. We compared the performance of temperature-dependent transmission models when mosquito life history traits were allowed to change across the lifespan of Anopheles stephensi, the urban malaria mosquito, to models parameterized with commonly derived estimates of lifetime trait values. We conducted an experiment on adult female An. stephensi to generate daily per capita values for lifespan, egg production, and biting rate at six constant temperatures. Both temperature and age significantly affected trait values. Further, we found quantitative and qualitative differences between temperature-trait relationships estimated based on daily rates versus directly observed lifetime values. Incorporating these temperature-trait relationships into an expression governing transmission suitability, relative R0(T), model resulted in minor differences in the breadth of suitable temperatures for Plasmodium falciparum transmission between the two models constructed from only An. stephensi trait data, but a substantial increase in breadth compared to a previously published model consisting of trait data from multiple mosquito species. Overall this work highlights the importance of considering how mosquito trait values vary with mosquito age and mosquito species when generating temperature-based environmental suitability predictions of transmission.
