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Mechanistic macroecology: exploring the drivers of latitudinal variation in terrestrial body size in a General Ecosystem Model

Michael Brian James Harfoot, Andrew Abraham, Derek P Tittensor, Gabriel C Costa, View ORCID ProfileSøren Faurby, Anat Feldman, Yuval Itescu, Shai Meiri, Ignacio Morales-Castilla, Brunno F Oliveira, Drew Purves
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/775957
Michael Brian James Harfoot
1UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre
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  • For correspondence: mike.harfoot@unep-wcmc.org
Andrew Abraham
2Northern Arizona University
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Derek P Tittensor
3Dalhousie University
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Gabriel C Costa
4Auburn University at Montgomery
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Søren Faurby
5University of Gothenburg
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  • ORCID record for Søren Faurby
Anat Feldman
6Tel-Aviv University
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Yuval Itescu
6Tel-Aviv University
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Shai Meiri
6Tel-Aviv University
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Ignacio Morales-Castilla
7Harvard University
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Brunno F Oliveira
8University of Florida
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Drew Purves
9Google DeepMind
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ABSTRACT

Many mechanisms have been hypothesized to explain Bergmann’s rule - the correlation of body size with latitude. However, it is not feasible to assess the contribution of hypothesised mechanisms by experimental manipulation or statistical correlation. Here, we evaluate two of the principal hypothesised mechanisms, related to thermoregulation and resource availability, using structured experiments in a mechanistic global ecosystem model. We simulated the broad structure of assemblages and ecosystems using the Madingley model, a mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM). We compared emergent modelled biogeographic patterns in body mass to empirical patterns for mammals and birds. We then explored the relative contribution of thermoregulation and resource availability to body mass clines by manipulating the model’s environmental gradients. Madingley produces body size gradients that are in broad agreement with empirical estimates. Thermoregulation and resource availability were both important controls on body mass for endotherms, but only temperature for ectotherms. Our results suggest that seasonality explains animal body mass patterns through a complex set of mechanisms. Process-based GEMs generate broadly realistic biogeographic body mass patterns. Ecologists can use them in novel ways: to explore causality, or for generating and testing hypotheses for large-scale, emergent ecological patterns. At the same time, macroecological patterns are useful for evaluating mechanistic models. Iteratively developing GEMs, and evaluating them against macroecological patterns, could generate new insights into the complex causes of such patterns.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted March 09, 2020.
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Mechanistic macroecology: exploring the drivers of latitudinal variation in terrestrial body size in a General Ecosystem Model
Michael Brian James Harfoot, Andrew Abraham, Derek P Tittensor, Gabriel C Costa, Søren Faurby, Anat Feldman, Yuval Itescu, Shai Meiri, Ignacio Morales-Castilla, Brunno F Oliveira, Drew Purves
bioRxiv 775957; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/775957
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Mechanistic macroecology: exploring the drivers of latitudinal variation in terrestrial body size in a General Ecosystem Model
Michael Brian James Harfoot, Andrew Abraham, Derek P Tittensor, Gabriel C Costa, Søren Faurby, Anat Feldman, Yuval Itescu, Shai Meiri, Ignacio Morales-Castilla, Brunno F Oliveira, Drew Purves
bioRxiv 775957; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/775957

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