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Vector bionomics and vectorial capacity as emergent properties of mosquito behaviors and ecology

View ORCID ProfileSean L. Wu, View ORCID ProfileHector M. Sanchez C., View ORCID ProfileJohn M. Henry, View ORCID ProfileDaniel T. Citron, View ORCID ProfileQian Zhang, Kelly Compton, View ORCID ProfileBiyonka Liang, View ORCID ProfileAmit Verma, Derek A.T. Cummings, Arnaud Le Menach, View ORCID ProfileThomas W. Scott, View ORCID ProfileAnne L. Wilson, View ORCID ProfileSteven W. Lindsay, View ORCID ProfileCatherine L. Moyes, View ORCID ProfilePenny A. Hancock, View ORCID ProfileTanya L. Russell, View ORCID ProfileThomas R. Burkot, View ORCID ProfileJohn M. Marshall, View ORCID ProfileSamson Kiware, View ORCID ProfileRobert C. Reiner Jr., View ORCID ProfileDavid L. Smith
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/790097
Sean L. Wu
1Divisions of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
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Hector M. Sanchez C.
1Divisions of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
2Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey, Monterrey, Mexico
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John M. Henry
3Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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Daniel T. Citron
3Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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Qian Zhang
3Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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Kelly Compton
3Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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Biyonka Liang
1Divisions of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
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Amit Verma
4Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
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Derek A.T. Cummings
5Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
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Arnaud Le Menach
6Clinton Health Access Initiative, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
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Thomas W. Scott
7University of California, Davis, California, USA
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Anne L. Wilson
8Liverpool School of Tropical Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK
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Steven W. Lindsay
9Department of Biosciences, University of Durham, Durham, UK
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Catherine L. Moyes
10Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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Penny A. Hancock
10Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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Tanya L. Russell
11Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Cairns, Australia
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Thomas R. Burkot
11Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Cairns, Australia
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John M. Marshall
1Divisions of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
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Samson Kiware
12Ifakara Health Institute, Environmental Health and Ecological Sciences Thematic Group, Ifakara, Tanzania
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  • ORCID record for Samson Kiware
Robert C. Reiner Jr.
3Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
13Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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David L. Smith
3Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
13Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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  • For correspondence: smitdave@uw.edu
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Abstract

Mosquitoes are important vectors for pathogens of humans and other vertebrate animals. Some aspects of adult mosquito behavior and mosquito ecology play an important role in determining the capacity of vector populations to transmit pathogens. Here, we re-examine factors affecting the transmission of pathogens by mosquitoes using a new approach. Unlike most previous models, this framework considers the behavioral states and state transitions of adult mosquitoes through a sequence of activity bouts. We developed a new framework for individual-based simulation models called MBITES (Mosquito Bout-based and Individual-based Transmission Ecology Simulator). In MBITES, it is possible to build models that simulate the behavior and ecology of adult mosquitoes in exquisite detail on complex resource landscapes generated by spatial point processes. We also developed an ordinary differential equation model which is the Kolmogorov forward equations for models developed in MBITES under a specific set of simplifying assumptions. While infection of the mosquito and pathogen development are one possible part of a mosquito’s state, that is not the main focus. Using extensive simulation using some models developed in MBITES, we show that vectorial capacity can be understood as an emergent property of simple behavioral algorithms interacting with complex resource landscapes, and that relative density or sparsity of resources and the need to search can have profound consequences for mosquito populations’ capacity to transmit pathogens.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.
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Posted October 01, 2019.
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Vector bionomics and vectorial capacity as emergent properties of mosquito behaviors and ecology
Sean L. Wu, Hector M. Sanchez C., John M. Henry, Daniel T. Citron, Qian Zhang, Kelly Compton, Biyonka Liang, Amit Verma, Derek A.T. Cummings, Arnaud Le Menach, Thomas W. Scott, Anne L. Wilson, Steven W. Lindsay, Catherine L. Moyes, Penny A. Hancock, Tanya L. Russell, Thomas R. Burkot, John M. Marshall, Samson Kiware, Robert C. Reiner Jr., David L. Smith
bioRxiv 790097; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/790097
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Vector bionomics and vectorial capacity as emergent properties of mosquito behaviors and ecology
Sean L. Wu, Hector M. Sanchez C., John M. Henry, Daniel T. Citron, Qian Zhang, Kelly Compton, Biyonka Liang, Amit Verma, Derek A.T. Cummings, Arnaud Le Menach, Thomas W. Scott, Anne L. Wilson, Steven W. Lindsay, Catherine L. Moyes, Penny A. Hancock, Tanya L. Russell, Thomas R. Burkot, John M. Marshall, Samson Kiware, Robert C. Reiner Jr., David L. Smith
bioRxiv 790097; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/790097

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