Abstract
Rapid phenotypic adaptation is often observed in natural populations and selection experiments. However, detecting the genome-wide impact of this selection is difficult, since adaptation often proceeds from standing variation and selection on polygenic traits, both of which may leave faint genomic signals indistinguishable from a noisy background of genetic drift. One promising signal comes from the genome-wide covariance between allele frequency changes observable from temporal genomic data, e.g. evolve-and-resequence studies. These temporal covariances reflect how heritable fitness variation in the population leads changes in allele frequencies at one timepoint to be predictive of the changes at later timepoints, as alleles are indirectly selected due to remaining associations with selected alleles. Since genetic drift does not lead to temporal covariance, we can use these covariances to estimate what fraction of the variation in allele frequency change through time is driven by linked selection. Here, we reanalyze three selection experiments to quantify the effects of linked selection over short timescales using covariance among time-points and across replicates. We estimate that at least 17% to 37% of allele frequency change is driven by selection in these experiments. Against this background of positive genome-wide temporal covariances we also identify signals of negative temporal covariance corresponding to reversals in the direction of selection for a reasonable proportion of loci over the time course of a selection experiment. Overall, we find that in the three studies we analyzed, linked selection has a large impact on short-term allele frequency dynamics that is readily distinguishable from genetic drift.
Significance Statement A long-standing problem in evolutionary biology is to understand the processes that shape the genetic composition of populations. In a population without migration, the two processes that change allele frequencies are selection, which increases beneficial alleles and removes deleterious ones, and genetic drift which randomly changes frequencies as some parents contribute more or less alleles to the next generation. Previous efforts to disentangle these processes have used genomic samples from a single timepoint and models of how selection affects neighboring sites (linked selection). Here, we use genomic data taken through time to quantify the contributions of selection and drift to genome-wide frequency changes. We show selection acts over short timescales in three evolve-and-resequence studies and has a sizable genome-wide impact.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Footnotes
Minor corrections and edits for clarity.