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North American Birds Require Mitigation and Adaptation to Reduce Vulnerability to Climate Change

Brooke L. Bateman, Chad Wilsey, Lotem Taylor, Joanna Wu, Geoffrey S. LeBaron, Gary Langham
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/798652
Brooke L. Bateman
Science Division, National Audubon Society, New York, New York, United States of America
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  • For correspondence: bbateman@audubon.org
Chad Wilsey
Science Division, National Audubon Society, New York, New York, United States of America
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Lotem Taylor
Science Division, National Audubon Society, New York, New York, United States of America
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Joanna Wu
Science Division, National Audubon Society, New York, New York, United States of America
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Geoffrey S. LeBaron
Science Division, National Audubon Society, New York, New York, United States of America
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Gary Langham
Science Division, National Audubon Society, New York, New York, United States of America
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Abstract

Biodiversity is being lost at an alarming rate across the globe, with extinction rates up to a hundred times greater than historical norms. Climate change will only exacerbate this crisis. The rapid pace of projected climate change is set to push birds to seek new locations, drastically reshuffling the avian communities of North America. In an emerging climate crisis, effective conservation requires both adaptation and mitigation to improve the resilience of species. However, the pledged reductions in greenhouse gas emissions outlined in the Paris Agreement framework would still lead to a 3.2°C or greater increase in global mean temperature by the end of this century. In this study, we use big data analytics to develop species distribution models and assess the vulnerability of 604 North American birds to multiple climate change scenarios. We assess how climate change mitigation can affect the number of species vulnerable to climate change, as well as the species and locations at risk if emissions continue unchecked. Our results indicate that over two-thirds of North American birds are moderately or highly vulnerable to climate change under a 3.0°C global warming scenario. Of these climate-vulnerable species, 76% would have reduced vulnerability and 38% of those would be considered non-vulnerable if warming were stabilized at 1.5°C. Thus, the current pledge in greenhouse gas reductions set by the Paris Agreement is inadequate to reduce vulnerability to birds. Additionally, if climate change proceeds on its current trajectory, arctic birds, waterbirds and boreal and western forest birds will be highly vulnerable to climate change; groups that are currently not considered of high conservation concern. Thus, there is an urgent need for both aggressive policies to mitigate emissions and focused conservation adaptation actions to protect birds and the places they need in a changing climate.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted October 10, 2019.
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North American Birds Require Mitigation and Adaptation to Reduce Vulnerability to Climate Change
Brooke L. Bateman, Chad Wilsey, Lotem Taylor, Joanna Wu, Geoffrey S. LeBaron, Gary Langham
bioRxiv 798652; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/798652
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North American Birds Require Mitigation and Adaptation to Reduce Vulnerability to Climate Change
Brooke L. Bateman, Chad Wilsey, Lotem Taylor, Joanna Wu, Geoffrey S. LeBaron, Gary Langham
bioRxiv 798652; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/798652

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