Seizing diminishing habitat conservation and restoration opportunities in the Tampa Bay, FL watershed: An urban estuary in recovery

Habitat restoration efforts should integrate past trends, current status, expected climate change and coastal development impacts, remaining realistic opportunities, and resource management community capabilities. Integrating these concepts, a new target setting approach is being implemented in the Tampa Bay region with broad transferability potential. Past changes, as determined through a three-decade habitat change analysis and over forty years of habitat restoration experience in the region, has informed the new approach. It is also primarily focused on what is possible today and the projected needs for the future, rather than focusing on or attempting to replicate past ecological conditions. Likewise, this new paradigm accounts for persistent local and global stressors – especially watershed development, sea level rise, and climate change. As such, newly established numeric targets are “place-based,” meaning that they attempt to maximize the remaining restoration and conservation “opportunity areas” within the watershed. Lastly, the approach is comprehensive in that targets for the range of critical habitats, from subtidal to uplands, are now defined. This approach represents a general framework for addressing competing interests in planning for habitat restoration that could be applied in other coastal settings where sustainable urbanization practices are desired to co-exist with natural environments.


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The health of estuarine systems, coastal habitats, and associated fauna and flora are 39 inextricably linked to land uses and management throughout the watershed [1]. These habitats 40 provide multiple ecosystem services, including wildlife shelter and migratory corridors [1], 41 fisheries production [3], water quality improvement [4,5,6], erosion and flood attenuation [7,8], 42 carbon sequestration [9] and recreation [10]. The Tampa Bay Estuary Program (TBEP) is one of National Estuary Program (NEP). In recognition of threats to habitats from development and 45 climate change stressors, the TBEP and partners recently created the third iteration of a plan to 46 establish targets and goals for habitat restoration within the Tampa Bay watershed. As an NEP, the program has guided regional environmental restoration initiatives for the estuary since 1991.

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The methodologies used in the creation of a 2020 Habitat Master Plan Update for Tampa Bay

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[11] are highly transferable to both coastal and non-coastal systems. impacts of construction and associated infrastructure remove or substantially modify existing 53 habitats, and can alter hydrology of nearby streams and rivers [12,13]. Given the degree to water quality [17,18].

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Related changes in habitats in response to climate change (sea level rise and warming) salinity range [23,24], the largest remaining J. roemerianus marshes in Tampa Bay are located   70 in the lower-salinity reaches of tidal rivers and creeks. The greatest extents of those marshes 71 occur in river systems where their upstream extent is constrained by impoundments for public 72 water supplies. Spatial restriction in these hydrologically truncated rivers may make these 73 marshes particularly vulnerable to "pinching out", as upstream migration in response to sea level 74 rise will be cut off by anthropogenic barriers. Similarly, landward migration of salt barrens (high 75 marsh areas in Tampa Bay) in response to sea level rise will be restricted by the filling and 76 hardening of coastal uplands associated with existing or future urban development.

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Need for a paradigm shift 78 The synergistic effects of development and climate change diminish the available space 79 for future restoration in urbanizing estuaries, thereby impacting the variety of ecosystem 80 services provided by these habitats and the wildlife they support [25]. Given projected habitat 81 losses without intervention efforts and the limited resources (including time, land, funding, and 82 labor force) available, it is important to appropriately and realistically site restoration projects to 83 increase the likelihood of success and benefits to both natural and human communities [26]. To 84 achieve this objective, a new restoration approach on a broad watershed scale will be 85 implemented.

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Previously, a "retrospective" approach to setting habitat protection and restoration 87 targets in Tampa  changes are expected to become more pronounced over the next several decades [39,40].

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Updating the approach 109 The new approach integrates the whole watershed, addresses historical changes,

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focuses on trajectories that have occurred during more contemporary time periods, and 111 considers both current and future stressors --particularly land development and sea level rise.

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There is relatively consistent extent and distribution data for most Tampa  activities are possible, and where they should best be focused to attain defined targets in the 231 future, were also analyzed. The definition and mapping of opportunity areas is necessary to 232 quantify the "restoration potential" for a particular habitat type, which is a measure of what is 233 actually possible under current and future projected conditions. The most appropriate 234 opportunity areas were generally not developed and located on existing public lands or areas 235 identified for public acquisition as conservation lands.

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The FLUCCS 2017 geospatial database ( estimate the relative restoration potential of mangrove/salt barrens and salt marshes, a regional 270 long-term water quality data set was used to create salinity isohalines, which was then binned 271 into two salinity categories: greater and less than an annual mean of 18 psu (Table 1).

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All source and derivative GIS datasets (

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Xeric soils were roughly aggregated in an east-west band through the middle of the 372 watershed (Fig 4). Approximately 2,107 km 2 was classified as xeric, while 3,760 km 2 was 373 classified as mesic/hydric.

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The targets and goals (Table 6) identify where regional consensus for thriving habitats both salt marsh and upland habitats (Fig 3). 1

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The observed gains in wetlands (Table 3b)   The decrease in native uplands (Table 3b) is the result of continued development in the 471 Tampa Bay watershed, combined with the lack of regulatory protection of native uplands.

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Attaining upland habitat targets and goals will require coordinated and concerted restoration of these habitats on existing conservation lands, as well as new conservation lands to offset the continued loss of these habitats to development.

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However, if properly focused and comprehensively coordinated, compensatory mitigation 532 activities could significantly contribute to the attainment of wetland habitat restoration goals and 533 targets for the Tampa Bay estuarine system and its contributing watershed.

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To better coordinate future activities, stakeholders are beginning to pledge the formation 535 of a public-private partnership that would link regulatory (compensatory mitigation) and resource 536 management objectives forpublicly funded habitat enhancement, restoration, and establishment 537 programs in the watershed. Creation of a "Habitat Management Consortium" would be expected 538 to optimize and improve the cost-effectiveness of habitat protection, restoration and mitigation 539 activities in the watershed, and bind commitments to attaining the aspirational targets and goals 540 for all critical coastal habitats of the Tampa Bay estuary.

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The establishment of habitat restoration targets and goals considering climate change, 543 development trends, land availability, and past restoration activities, expands the restoration 544 palette to a more comprehensive list of habitats within the system. If successfully implemented, 545 the 2050 goals would total over 4,000 ha of habitat restoration throughout the Tampa Bay   546 watershed. Land acquisition will be an important component of attainment of some targets and goals, including the salt marsh restoration target for the first ten years. Land acquisition will also provide new opportunities for socioeconomic benefits, given that these projects often have a 549 public recreation component.

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Our new approach will continue to engage multiple partner agencies, non-governmental 551 organizations, and private citizens in the successful implementation of the restoration plan.

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Emphases will include recognition of land types particularly vulnerable to climate change or 553 development stressors and these needs will be communicated to restoration partners.

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Consistent education, targeted funding opportunities, and reporting will also ensure that these 555 newly established targets and goals lead to successful restoration projects, land acquisition, and 556 enhanced ecosystem services.

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Acknowledgements 558 The TBEP Technical Advisory Committee reviewed drafts of the original reports that are 559 the basis of this paper, and their comments and insight are gratefully recognized.    Florida. Technical report #07-20.