Research on the temporal evolution track and influence of green development in the last decade

Green development is important to realize the coordinated development of local ecological environment, economy and society, but also an important way to promote the harmony between human and land. This study utilizes projection pursuit model (PPM) measure, as well as the system gray prediction model GM (1, N), and other measurement methods, build an evaluation system from three dimensions of green fortune, green growth and green benefits to analyze the temporal evolution, development trend and its influencing factors of Baoshan’s ecological engineering of project acres, the results show: (1)The overall level of the green development system in Baoshan, Yunnan Province, is relatively good and shows an increasing trend year by year, with an average growth rate of 18.3%, and there is a synergistic coupling effect among the three subsystems. (2) Regional green development has achieved remarkable progress, but problems and pressure among the three subsystems are still grim. The sub-system of green growth and green benefits declined from 2010 to 2016, with an annual decline rate of 12%, and then picked up slightly in the next three years, reflecting the pressure of resources and ecological environment in this region and the difficulty of the sub-system of green wealth growth. (3) The prediction analysis shows that the green development index in Baoshan, Yunnan Province will keep a steady rise in the next two years, and the predicted value will be 4.51 in 2020, with an average growth rate of 15.1%, and the regional green development system is in good condition. (4) Green development is mainly affected by environmental pollution, industrial structure, urbanization, population, market and other factors from the three subsystems of local ecology, ecology, economy and social benefits. This paper puts forward suggestions in terms of popularizing the concept of green development, improving the level of ecological economic development and promoting the regional environment bearing capacity, green development model of ecological engineering area is also built. It aims to have some practical reference value for prompting regional ecological civilization construction and green development. And provide regional support for the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework and the Achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.


Introduction
China confronts with severe resource and environment pressure now, in addition, special population, resource and environmental condition decide China must implement the strategy of sustainable development. The White Paper on Chinese Population, Environment and Development in the 21st Century is the first sustainable development strategy in China. Then national 10th Five-Year plan, 11th Five-year plan promote the implement of the strategy constantly and they call for building a resource-conserving and environment friendly society.
It is the 12th Five-Year Plan that green development is put forwards and it advocates "establishing the concept of green and low-carbon development". The 13th Five-Year-Plan put forward that green is a necessary condition for sustainable development and important embodiment of people's pursuit of a better life. The report to 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) pointed that we should accelerate the reform of the ecological civilization system to better meet growing ecological needs of the people; it also emphasizes the strategic development direction of realizing excellent ecological environment through green development. Up to now, China's green development has gradually changed from simple to complex, from one-dimension to multi-dimension exploration.
Scholars at home and abroad have had many theoretical explorations on the concept and connotation, dynamic and static assessment, driving forces and realization approaches of green development have also been explored, but there is major issue to be addressed. Firstly, the concept of green development in China is diversified and limited due to the combination of theory and practice from multiple disciplines and perspectives; secondly, it is believed that green development is ecological protection, which is confused with the coordinated development of economy and society, the evaluation of economic and social development; which leads to the fuzzy evaluation of green development; to understand green development from a perspective of green economy, industrial greening or ecological system, resource system and energy system, which lacks a systematic and overall understanding of China's green development. It is essential to clarify the connotation and theoretical system of green development and construct an evaluation system for regional green development. From the above mentioned, the world has come into a new era with the theme of "green development", green development has gradually become the inevitable choice for many countries and regions to confront the financial crisis, environment and resource challenges and sustainable development. Based on the scientific understanding of green development system and connotation, this paper constructs an evaluation system for regional green development accordingly.

Figure1. Sketch map of study area
In figure 1, located in the southwest of Yunnan, to the west is Myanmar, adjoin Dehong, Baoshan is an essential route since ancient times. From 2016, in accordance with the development direction of "Three Green Card" of Yunnan Government, Baoshan has constructed the ecological engineering project in combination with its regional characteristics and urban ecological development strategy to integrate the elements of "mountain, water and city" into one, and draw a new blueprint for regional ecological development. The implementation of ecological engineering project will promote the development of ecological civilization in Yunnan, but also improve the living standards of local residents and radiates the economic development of surrounding areas. So this paper studies the change of the green development index and green development level, evolution mechanism under the promotion of ecological engineering project in recent 10 years in Longyang District, Baoshan, to provide reference for the promotion of green development and ecological civilization construction in Yunnan Province.

The basic connotation and main content of Green Development
The essence of green development realizing the concept of sustainable development and widely recognized by the international community (Liu Mingguang, 2017). The relationship between them is the same strain, it is not only the inheritance of sustainable development, but also the theoretical innovation of sustainable development in China. It is also a significant theoretical contribution to China's response to the objective reality of global environment deterioration, which is not a single protection and construction of the ecological environment, but an organic combination of three subsystems of natural ecology, economy and society, green development is a development path with high efficiency and coordination of ecology, economy and has systematic integrity, dynamism and ecology and society, which aims to increase human welfare and accumulate green wealth, the economic behavior of low consumption, low emission and reasonable consumption, and the continuous enrichment of ecological capital as the main features, and the purpose is to achieve the harmonious coexistence and mutual benefit between human and nature. Green development is the requirement for sustainable development, an important manifestation of Chinese people's pursuit of a better life, and a fundamental approach to Chinese ecological civilization construction.
The connotation of green development varies from one to another, but it is basically the same connotation in the academic circle: that is focusing on the process of regional high-quality development, namely development efficiency and innovation-driven (Lorek, 2014). Maximize ecological, economic and social benefits in the process of high-quality development. (Loiseau, 2016;Amato, 2017), thus, the optimal development mode of coordinated regional resource and environment system, economic system and social system is an important path to realize green development. Respect for ecological system, economic system and social system is the requirement for green development, which covers 3 areas: first, to realize the green restructuring of resource elements allocation, promote the transition of green production function; second, to realize the decoupling of economic growth and economic development speed from ecological deficit; third, establish the development concept of "unity of nature and man" and mutual benefit of nature and man (Hu Angang, 2015). From the perspective of system and based on system function, mechanism, development strategy of green development were analyzed, and the concept of "Three Circles" model is set up, the green development is regarded as the second generation of sustainable development including green wealth, green growth and green benefits. Among them, green wealth is a foundation, green growth is means and green welfare is the target (Hu Angang, 2014). therefore, green development is a kind of relief efficiency mode of sustainable development, in coordination with economic and social development of efficient environment symbiotic for development direction, by realizing the transformation of industrial environment friendly resource saving within the regional system, improving the cleaner production mechanism and changing the production process (Chu Dajian, 2012), with the ultimate purpose for achieving green development and high-level development of ecological civilization in the region.

The evaluation system of Green Development
In recent years, with the extensive application of green economy and sustainable development, the evaluation index system has been continuously deepened, mainly including environmental sustainability, inclusiveness, green economy, etc. The previous research on green development in China focused on the evaluation of green economy, industrial greening degree and sustainable development degree that is necessary to conduct a systematic study on the current situation and deficiency of green development, and conduct a systematic evaluation, condition simulation, and development trajectory analysis of green development, which is of great practical significance to the regional green development and transformation.
Based on the green development concept put forward by Hu Angang, this study constructs the evaluation index system of green development according to its green growth, green wealth and green welfare. Referenced the current research results and regional green development strategy design, the regional green development evaluation index system is designed according to the scientific, regional, operable and systematic comprehensive principles (Wang Yong, Li Haiying, 2018). This study analyze green development evaluation system including three layers: the first layer for the total system, namely the development of regional green evaluation index system; the second is subsystem layer, or layer evaluation of ecological economic and social subsystem; the third layer of elements, including green wealth, green growth and green welfare and the fourth layer of index layer, with the total of 25 indicators. Among them, green wealth mainly includes: 7 basic indicators such as annual afforestation area, green coverage rate, per capital arable land, regional emission of SO 2 ; the green increase covers 8 basic indicators such as per capita GDP, energy consumption and land productivity; green welfare includes 10 basic indicators such as the numbers of students in this area, the area's average income, per capita public green land, and effective irrigation area (Table 1

below).
Table1. The construction of regional green-development System

Sub-system Basic indicators Attribute
Annual afforestation area (hm2)

Method of Regional Green development Index Measurement
The projection pursuit model (PPM) is used to evaluate the regional green development, which can process the nonlinear and multi-dimensional data scientifically and systematically, and can effectively calculate the regional green development, the multivariate complex system evaluation problem. By using the projection optimization function to reduce the dimension of the multi-dimension data, and use the low-dimensional data to simulate and analyze the characteristics of the multi-dimensional data and the projection value, then the synthesis problem of the multi-dimensional data.
① Data standardization ② Projection function Suppose n={n(1)，n(2)，…，n(q)} is the projection direction vector, and the one-dimensional projection value of region i : Then project objective function: In the above equation, Sz is the standard deviation of Z(i); Dz is the local density of Z (i).
The optimization gist of the projection is a nonlinear optimization problem with the variable: {n(j)/j=1, 2, …, q}, and the maximum value can be processed by using accelerate genetic algorithm. Parameters as follows: initial 400, crossover probability 0.8, accelerate times:50.
④ The optimal value. The optimal projection direction (i.e., weight) n* is multiplied by the normalized index value, and the projection value X is(i) obtained by summing, namely, the evaluation score of green development index is obtained. The larger the projection is, the higher the score is: The main source of indicator data Based on the above evaluation index system of regional green development, the research  Table 2 below. From the perspective of the overall development system of this region, the overall green development level shows the trend of increasing. As shown in Figure 2, from 1.31 in 2010 to 3.71 in 2019, the average annual growth rate is about 18.3%, indicating that the level of green development in this region has been significantly improved. Realizing the great effect of resource environment on the regional economic and social development, local government must follow the natural ecology of the regional development pattern and economic laws, make the green development as a higher development strategy, focus on the coordinated development of local ecological environment, economy and society to optimize the sustainable development of regional human and land system. The government of Baoshan make great effort to build an ecological corridor project covering an area of more than 10.000 mu, actively promote the strategies of building new urbanization, rural revitalization of the demonstration zone, beautiful and livable city of Baoshan, promoting regional across development and speeding up the pace of urban ecological development and the sustainable development of local production, consumption structure and the system structure optimized constantly, strengthen urban environmental governance, reduce resource consumption and improve the level of ecological progress. However, the evaluation of local green development system shows that the overall growth rate of green development in China is growing slowly, and the concept of sustainable development needs to be internalized into the comprehensive decision-making of local top-level design, planning and development.  Year From the point of the structure of the green development assessment system in the construction area, the "green wealth" subsystem was in a declining state at this stage. From 2010 to 2016, the "green wealth" index, which represents the regional ecosystem and environmental pressure, continued to decline from 1.81 in 2010 to 0.29 in 2016, with an annual decline rate of 12%. Therefore, restore wetlands and strengthen ecological management, Baoshan in Yunnan province has implemented the "Three Ten thousand mu Project" since 2016, that is, the ten thousand mu wetland restoration project, the ten thousand mu sightseeing agriculture restoration project and the ten thousand mu ecological management vegetation restoration project in Dongshan, integrating the elements of mountains, water, fields, parks and towns to promote the ecological development of regional cities. The With the continuous improvement of the regional economic development level, economic subsystem, the involvement of the structure in the direction of rationalization, ordering degree of green industry economy also gradually improve, the subsystem of "green growth" representing economic development and the subsystem of "green welfare" representing social development elements both show a continuous and steady growth trend.
The subsystem "green growth" index increased from 0.23 in 2010 to 2.28 in 2019, with a significant increase. The development index of "green welfare" subsystem increased from 0.28 in 2010 to 2.61 in 2019, showing an outstanding growth, which reflecting the improvement of economic development, local public services and residents' social welfare have also been improved. From this indicated that during the research period, intensive production, recycle of local level improved, however, because the contradiction between the increasing load of resources and environment and the demand of continuously growing economic development exists for a long time, the development of the "green wealth" subsystem, which represents the economy is relatively slow, and it also reflects the difficulty and long-term nature of the sustainable development task of the regional ecological environment system.
The local government make great efforts to promote urbanization, rural revitalization of demonstration area, border central cities of western Yunnan, to promote the production structure, consumption structure, and optimize the elements of sustainable development integration, strengthen local environmental pollution control, reduce the resource consumption gradually, improve the level of regional ecological civilization construction. In addition, from the above model econometric analysis results, it showed that the current level of green development in the region needs to be further improved, and the concept of sustainable development needs to continue to be internalized and integrated into local government decision-making and development planning and design.

Prediction and calibration of green development index in construction area
The model GM (1, 1) describes the prediction model of the variation trend correlation degree of regional green development index in the short term (Liu sifeng et al., 2000). GM (1,1) contains only one parameter, so it has a large elasticity and wide applicability to measure the sample number and sequence length, and has a good prediction accuracy for local green development system. The multi-index complex system of green development as a single index comprehensive system evaluation by using PPM method, which is substituted into GM (1,1) for model prediction, and the green development trend of the research area in the short term is measured (  That is X(k)=7.1275/ exp ((-0.1422) *(k-1))-5.82， Thus, the simulation data sequence is generated, and the prediction sequence is obtained through reduction calculation, as shown in Table 4. below. Original sequence

Analysis on Influencing Factors of Regional Green Development
This paper analyzes the influencing factors between the regional green development system (1) Regional Eco-environmental Factors and Green Development In the process of using PPM model to process the "green wealth" parameters representing the regional ecosystem subsystem, the maximum projection value is 0.455, thus, it can be concluded that the closer to the maximum projection value, that is, the parameters with relatively greater impact on the green development of green wealth subsystem are in the (2) Regional Economic Factors and Green Development The "green growth" subsystem and its indicators are used to characterize the elements of regional economic development. From Figure 2 improve the comprehensive development quality and synergy of regional land and resources.
Also, the industrial activity is the main behavior of regional system and human relations, and all kinds of pollutants control center, the important carrier of the ecological environment and economy. The combination of resources and environment and economy largely determines the degree and type in the region of resource utilization and economic benefits, and the degree of load on the ecological environment system. Under the background of green development and ecological civilization construction, the adjustment and optimal allocation of local industrial structure are the key points to break the resource and environmental constraints and realize the coordination between human and land. (

3) Elements of Local Social Development and Green Development
In the process of measuring the green development coefficient of ecological project construction area in Baoshan, the "green welfare" parameter system is adopted to measure the interaction and influence between local social system element and green development.

Conclusion
Under the theoretical framework of regional green development, this paper studies the green development evolution, trend and influencing factors of 10.000 mu ecological engineering construction area in Baoshan, Yunnan Province by using econometric analysis methods such as projection pursuit evaluation model(PPM) and grey system prediction model, and obtains the following conclusions: (1) The theoretical framework of regional green development is based on the interaction and coordination mechanism of ecological, economic and social complex system of sustainable development from the perspective of system science. Green development is a process of promoting the harmonious development between human and land, human and nature, and the continuous optimization of its development model. Green development covers three subsystems: green wealth, green growth and green welfare. Green wealth is the foundation of local green development construction, green growth is the core of regional economic development, and green welfare is the goal of regional green development system.
The coordinated and balanced development of the three subsystem is the internal requirement of green development.
(2) As for the temporal evolution of green development, firstly, (3) The factors that affect the level of regional green development are characterized by locality, dynamics and complexity. The situation of local urbanization, industrial structure, population, environment and resources influence regional green development through economic ecology, land resources development, input-output mechanism.
Based on the requirements of green development in China and the actual situation of regional ecological-economic-social development, the study puts forward the following individual contractors, and mixed joint-stock investment enterprises; to develop large-scale "order" agriculture, provide farmers with all-round technical training, and make modern agriculture more standardized , refined and efficient.
(3) Improve the environmental management system, improve the carrying capacity of regional ecological environment, improve the quality of living environment and happiness.
Implement the control of regional environmental ecological risk process, implement the protection and restoration supervision of mountains, water, forests, grass, fields and lakes, and improve the zoning scheme of ecological functions. To formulate local development plans for resource conservation and recycling, promote green energy conservation and gradient utilization of energy in local buildings and transportation; Guided by the market construction of resource and environment property rights, ecological compensation system and environmental economic system should be established to reflect the cost of resource and environment depletion and ecological restoration. Supervise the disordered expansion of development areas, gradually optimize the "production-life-ecology space", and improve the benefits of regional sustainable development; build a system framework that integrates regional urbanization, population, industrial structure, market, resources and environment and other factors to drive the dynamic evolution of green development.