Abstract
Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses—especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika—is a key component of public health preparedness We apply an empirically parameterized Bayesian model of Aedes-borne viruses as a function of temperature to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare against projected risk in 2050 and 2070 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that shifting suitability will track optimal temperatures for transmission (26-29 °C), potentially leading to poleward shifts. Furthermore, especially for Ae. albopictus, extreme temperatures are likely to limit transmission risk in current zones of endemicity, especially the tropics. The patterns of impact of changing minimum and maximum predicted temperatures lead to idiosyncratic outcomes for people at risk in the future. Validating these results with observed epidemic dynamics in upcoming decades will be paramount if global public health infrastructure is expected to keep pace with expanding vector-borne disease.