RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 A mathematical model for simulating the transmission of Wuhan novel Coronavirus
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 2020.01.19.911669
DO 10.1101/2020.01.19.911669
A1 Tianmu Chen
A1 Jia Rui
A1 Qiupeng Wang
A1 Zeyu Zhao
A1 Jing-An Cui
A1 Ling Yin
YR 2020
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2020/01/19/2020.01.19.911669.abstract
AB As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probable be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from a seafood market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People transmission network model. The basic reproduction number (R0) was calculated from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the 2019-nCoV.