PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Julien Riou
AU  - Christian L. Althaus
TI  - Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019-nCoV
AID  - 10.1101/2020.01.23.917351
DP  - 2020 Jan 01
TA  - bioRxiv
PG  - 2020.01.23.917351
4099  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2020/01/24/2020.01.23.917351.short
4100  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2020/01/24/2020.01.23.917351.full
AB  - On December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization was notified about a cluster of pneumonia of unknown aetiology in the city of Wuhan, China. Chinese authorities later identified a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) as the causative agent of the outbreak. As of January 23, 2020, 655 cases have been confirmed in China and several other countries. Understanding the transmission characteristics and the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission of 2019-nCoV is critically important for coordinating current screening and containment strategies, and determining whether the outbreak constitutes a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). We performed stochastic simulations of early outbreak trajectories that are consistent with the epidemiological findings to date. We found the basic reproduction number, R0, to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval 1.4—3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of a similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the 1918 pandemic influenza. These findings underline the importance of heightened screening, surveillance and control efforts, particularly at airports and other travel hubs, in order to prevent further international spread of 2019-nCoV.