PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Zhang, Chi
AU  - Wang, Mei
TI  - Origin time and epidemic dynamics of the 2019 novel coronavirus
AID  - 10.1101/2020.01.25.919688
DP  - 2020 Jan 01
TA  - bioRxiv
PG  - 2020.01.25.919688
4099  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2020/01/27/2020.01.25.919688.short
4100  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2020/01/27/2020.01.25.919688.full
AB  - The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) have emerged from Wuhan, China. Studying the epidemic dynamics is crucial for further surveillance and control of the outbreak. We employed a Bayesian framework to infer the time-calibrated phylogeny and the epidemic dynamics represented by the effective reproductive number (Re) changing over time from the genomic sequences available from GISAID. The origin time is estimated to be December 17, 2019 (95% CI: December 5, 2019 – December 23, 2019). The median estimate of Re ranges from 0.2 to 2.2 and changes drastically over time. This study provides an early insight of the 2019-nCoV epidemic.