RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Origin time and epidemic dynamics of the 2019 novel coronavirus
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 2020.01.25.919688
DO 10.1101/2020.01.25.919688
A1 Zhang, Chi
A1 Wang, Mei
YR 2020
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2020/01/27/2020.01.25.919688.abstract
AB The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) have emerged from Wuhan, China. Studying the epidemic dynamics is crucial for further surveillance and control of the outbreak. We employed a Bayesian framework to infer the time-calibrated phylogeny and the epidemic dynamics represented by the effective reproductive number (Re) changing over time from the genomic sequences available from GISAID. The origin time is estimated to be December 17, 2019 (95% CI: December 5, 2019 – December 23, 2019). The median estimate of Re ranges from 0.2 to 2.2 and changes drastically over time. This study provides an early insight of the 2019-nCoV epidemic.