RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Breaking down of the healthcare system: Mathematical modelling for controlling the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak in Wuhan, China
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 2020.01.27.922443
DO 10.1101/2020.01.27.922443
A1 Ming, Wai-Kit
A1 Huang, Jian
A1 Zhang, Casper J. P.
YR 2020
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2020/01/28/2020.01.27.922443.abstract
AB A novel coronavirus pneumonia initially identified in Wuhan, China and provisionally named 2019-nCoV has surged in the public. In anticipation of substantial burdens on healthcare system following this human-to-human spread, we aim to scrutinise the currently available information and evaluate the burden of healthcare systems during this outbreak in Wuhan. We applied a modified SIR model to project the actual number of infected cases and the specific burdens on isolation wards and intensive care units, given the scenarios of different diagnosis rates as well as different public health intervention efficacy. Our estimates suggest the actual number of infected cases could be much higher than the reported, with estimated 26,701 cases (as of 28th January 2020) assuming 50% diagnosis rate if no public health interventions were implemented. The estimated burdens on healthcare system could be largely reduced if at least 70% efficacy of public health intervention is achieved.