RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 The accelerated infectious disease risk in the Anthropocene: more outbreaks and wider global spread
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 2020.04.20.049866
DO 10.1101/2020.04.20.049866
A1 Serge Morand
A1 Bruno A. Walther
YR 2020
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2020/04/20/2020.04.20.049866.abstract
AB The greatly accelerated economic growth during the Anthropocene has resulted in astonishing improvements in many aspects of human well-being, but has also caused the acceleration of risks, such as the interlinked biodiversity and climate crisis. Here, we report on another risk: the accelerated infectious disease risk associated with the number and geographic spread of human infectious disease outbreaks. Using the most complete, reliable, and up-to-date database on human infectious disease outbreaks (GIDEON), we show that the number of disease outbreaks, the number of diseases involved in these outbreaks, and the number of countries affected have increased during the entire Anthropocene. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of these outbreaks is becoming more globalized in the sense that the overall modularity of the disease networks across the globe has decreased, meaning disease outbreaks have become increasingly pandemic in their nature. This decrease in modularity is correlated with the increase in air traffic. We finally show that those countries and regions which are most central within these disease networks tend to be countries with higher GDPs. Therefore, one cost of increased global mobility and greater economic growth is the increased risk of disease outbreaks and their faster and wider spread. We briefly discuss three different scenarios which decision-makers might follow in light of our results.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.