RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 Memory in trait macroevolution JF bioRxiv FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory SP 465971 DO 10.1101/465971 A1 Emma E. Goldberg A1 Jasmine Foo YR 2018 UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2018/11/12/465971.abstract AB The history of a trait within a lineage may influence its future evolutionary trajectory, but macroevolutionary theory of this process is not well developed. For example, consider the simple binary trait of living in cave versus surface habitat. The longer a species has been cave-dwelling, the more may accumulated loss of vision, pigmentation, and defense restrict future adaptation if the species encounters the surface environment. However, the Markov model of discrete trait evolution that is widely adopted in phylogenetics does not allow the rate of cave-to-surface transition to decrease with longer duration as a cave-dweller. Here, we describe three models of evolution that remove this ‘memory-less’ constraint, using a renewal process to generalize beyond the typical Poisson process of discrete trait macroevolution. We then show how the two-state renewal process can be used for inference, and we investigate the potential of phylogenetic comparative data to reveal different influences of trait duration, or ‘memory’ in trait evolution. We hope that such approaches may open new avenues for modeling trait evolution and for broad comparative tests of hypotheses that some traits become entrenched.