PT - JOURNAL ARTICLE AU - Paul Frémont AU - Marion Gehlen AU - Mathieu Vrac AU - Jade Leconte AU - Patrick Wincker AU - Daniele Iudicone AU - Olivier Jaillon TI - Restructuring of genomic provinces of surface ocean plankton under climate change AID - 10.1101/2020.10.20.347237 DP - 2020 Jan 01 TA - bioRxiv PG - 2020.10.20.347237 4099 - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2020/10/20/2020.10.20.347237.short 4100 - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2020/10/20/2020.10.20.347237.full AB - The impact of climate change on diversity, functioning and biogeography of marine plankton is a major unresolved scientific issue. Here, niche theory is applied on plankton metagenomes sampled during the Tara Oceans expedition to derive pan-ocean geographical structuring in climatic provinces for 6 size fractions, from viruses to meso-zooplankton. Assuming a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the identified tropical provinces would expand and temperate provinces would shrink. Poleward shifts are projected for 96% of provinces in five major basins leading to their reorganization over ~50% of the surface ocean south of 60°N, of which 3% correspond to novel assemblages of provinces. Sea surface temperature is identified as the main driver and accounts only for ~51 % of the changes followed by phosphate (11%) and salinity (10.3%). These results demonstrate the potential of integration of genomics with physico-chemical data for higher scale modeling and understanding of ocean ecosystems.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.