RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Shortfalls and opportunities in terrestrial vertebrate species discovery
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 2020.10.23.352690
DO 10.1101/2020.10.23.352690
A1 Mario R. Moura
A1 Walter Jetz
YR 2020
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2020/10/25/2020.10.23.352690.abstract
AB Meter-resolution imagery of our world and myriad biodiversity records collected through citizen scientists and automated sensors belie the fact that much of the planet’s biodiversity remains undiscovered. Conservative estimates suggest only 13 to 18% of all living species may be known at this point 1–4, although this number could be as low as 1.5% 5. This biodiversity shortfall 6,7 strongly impedes the sustainable management of our planet’s resources, as the potential ecological and economic relevance of undiscovered species remains unrecognized 8. Here we use model-based predictions of terrestrial vertebrate species discovery to estimate future taxonomic and geographic discovery opportunities. Our model identifies distinct taxonomic and geographic unevenness in future discovery potential, with greatest opportunities for amphibians and reptiles and for Neotropical and IndoMalayan forests. Brazil, Indonesia, Madagascar, and Colombia emerge as holding greatest discovery opportunities, with a quarter of future species descriptions expected there. These findings highlight the significance of international support for taxonomic initiatives and the potential of quantitative models to aid the discovery of species before their functions are lost in ignorance 8. As nations draw up new policy goals under the post-2020 global biodiversity framework, a better understanding of the magnitude and geography of this known unknown is critical to inform goals and priorities 9 and to minimize future discoveries lost to extinction10.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.