RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Alternative futures for global biological invasions
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 2021.01.15.426694
DO 10.1101/2021.01.15.426694
A1 Núria Roura-Pascual
A1 Brian Leung
A1 Wolfgang Rabitsch
A1 Lucas Rutting
A1 Joost Vervoort
A1 Sven Bacher
A1 Stefan Dullinger
A1 Karl-Heinz Erb
A1 Jonathan M. Jeschke
A1 Stelios Katsanevakis
A1 Ingolf Kühn
A1 Bernd Lenzner
A1 Andrew M. Liebhold
A1 Michael Obersteiner
A1 Anibal Pauchard
A1 Garry D. Peterson
A1 Helen E. Roy
A1 Hanno Seebens
A1 Marten Winter
A1 Mark A. Burgman
A1 Piero Genovesi
A1 Philip E. Hulme
A1 Reuben P. Keller
A1 Guillaume Latombe
A1 Melodie A. McGeoch
A1 Gregory M. Ruiz
A1 Riccardo Scalera
A1 Michael R. Springborn
A1 Betsy von Holle
A1 Franz Essl
YR 2021
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2021/01/17/2021.01.15.426694.abstract
AB Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, current global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. We used a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global biological invasion scenarios spanning a wide breadth of plausible global futures through 2050. We adapted the widely used “two axes” scenario analysis approach to develop four families of four scenarios each, resulting in 16 scenarios that were later clustered into four contrasting sets of futures. Our analysis highlighted that socio-economic developments and changes in sustainability policies and lifestyle have the potential to shape biological invasions, in addition to well-known ecological drivers, such as climate and human land use change. Our scenarios align fairly well with the recently developed shared socio-economic pathways, but the factors that drive differences in biological invasions are underrepresented there. Including these factors in global scenarios and models is essential to adequately consider biological invasions in global environmental assessments, and obtain a more integrative picture of future socio-ecological developments.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.