PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Timothy H. Tear
AU  - Nicholas H. Wolff
AU  - Geoffrey J. Lipsett-Moore
AU  - Mark E. Ritchie
AU  - Natasha S. Ribeiro
AU  - Lisanne S. Petracca
AU  - Peter A. Lindsey
AU  - Luke Hunter
AU  - Andrew J. Loveridge
AU  - Franziska Steinbruch
TI  - A burning question: Can savannah fire management generate enough carbon revenue to help save the lion from extinction?
AID  - 10.1101/2020.06.04.132084
DP  - 2021 Jan 01
TA  - bioRxiv
PG  - 2020.06.04.132084
4099  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2021/01/18/2020.06.04.132084.short
4100  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2021/01/18/2020.06.04.132084.full
AB  - Lions (Panthera leo) in Africa have lost nearly half their population in just the last two decades, and effective management of the protected areas (PAs) where lions live will cost an estimated USD >$1 B/year in new funding. We explore the potential for launching a fire management and habitat restoration carbon-financing program to help fill this PA management funding gap. We demonstrate how introducing early dry season fire management programs could produce potential carbon revenues (PCR) from either a single carbon-financing method (avoided emissions) or from multiple sequestration methods of USD $59.6-$655.9 M/year (at USD $5/ton) or USD $155.0 M–$1.7 B/year (at USD $13/ton). We highlight variable but significant PCR for PAs with the greatest potential for restoring lion numbers between USD $1.5–$44.4 M per PA. We suggest investing in lion-centric fire management programs to jump-start the United Nations Decade of Ecological Restoration and help preserve African lions across their range.SCIENCE FOR SOCIETY The United Nation’s recently launched the Decade of Ecological Restoration in response to planet-wide land degradation. This study analyses the potential for savanna fire management programs to restore fire regimes that can generate new sources of revenue from carbon financing for chronically under-funded protected areas in Africa with lions, as lions are a key indicator of savanna ecosystem health. We estimated the amount of carbon saved by shifting fires that normally burn in the late dry season (and emit more carbon) to the early dry season (that accrue more carbon in the soil and woody vegetation). Based on current carbon market values we found substantial potential to eliminate or significantly reduce the $>1B annual funding gap needed to save the lion from extinction. Given additional benefits for nature and people from new savanna fire programs, we recommend integrated conservation and development projects direct more funding to some of the least developed countries with high biodiversity and support fire management programs in Africa.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.