PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - David L.A. Gaveau
AU  - Lucas Santos
AU  - Bruno Locatelli
AU  - Mohammad A. Salim
AU  - Husnayaen Husnayaen
AU  - Erik Meijaard
AU  - Charlie Heatubun
AU  - Douglas Sheil
TI  - Forest loss in Indonesian New Guinea: trends, drivers, and outlook
AID  - 10.1101/2021.02.13.431006
DP  - 2021 Jan 01
TA  - bioRxiv
PG  - 2021.02.13.431006
4099  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2021/02/14/2021.02.13.431006.short
4100  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2021/02/14/2021.02.13.431006.full
AB  - The rich forests of Indonesian New Guinea are threatened. We used satellite data to examine annual forest loss, road development and plantation expansion from 2001 to 2019, then developed a model to predict future deforestation in this understudied region. In 2019, 34.29 million hectares (Mha), or 83% of Indonesian New Guinea, supported old-growth forest. Over nineteen years, two percent (0.75 Mha) were cleared: 45% (0.34 Mha) converted to industrial plantations, roads, mine tailings, or other uses near cities; 55% (0.41 Mha) cleared by transient processes including selective natural timber extraction, inland water bodies-related processes, fires, and shifting agriculture. Industrial plantations expanded by 0.23 Mha, with the majority (0.21 Mha; 28% of forest loss) replacing forests and reaching 0.28 Mha in 2019 (97% oil palm; 3% pulpwood). The Trans-Papua Highway, a ~4,000 km national investment project, increased by 1,554 km. Positive correlations between highway and plantations expansion indicate these are linked processes. Plantations and roads grew rapidly after 2011, peaked in 2015/16, and declined thereafter. Indonesian government allocated 2.62 Mha of land for the development of industrial plantations (90% oil palm 10% pulpwood) of which 74% (1.95 Mha) remained forest in 2019. A spatial model predicts that an additional 4.5 Mha of forest could be cleared by 2036 if Indonesian New Guinea follows similar relationships to Indonesian Borneo. We highlight the opportunities for policy reform and the importance of working with indigenous communities, local leaders, and provincial government to protect the biological and cultural richness still embodied in this remarkable region.Competing Interest StatementDavid Gaveau is a member of the IUCN Oil Palm Task Force, a group tasked by the IUCN to investigate the sustainability of palm oil and he has done oil palm related work for this task force, and for Greenpeace. Erik Meijaard chairs and has received funding from the IUCN Oil Palm Task Force and he has done work paid by palm oil companies and the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil. Douglas Sheil is a member of the IUCN Oil Palm Task Force and he has facilitated student research in an oil palm concession (ANJ-Agri).