RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Projected spread of Zika virus in the Americas
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 066456
DO 10.1101/066456
A1 Qian Zhang
A1 Kaiyuan Sun
A1 Matteo Chinazzi
A1 Ana Pastore-Piontti
A1 Natalie E. Dean
A1 Diana Patricia Rojas
A1 Stefano Merler
A1 Dina Mistry
A1 Piero Poletti
A1 Luca Rossi
A1 Margaret Bray
A1 M. Elizabeth Halloran
A1 Ira M. Longini, Jr.
A1 Alessandro Vespignani
YR 2016
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/07/28/066456.abstract
AB We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to project past and future spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution, and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014. We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through December 2016. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of cases of microcephaly assuming three levels of risk associated with ZIKV infection during the first trimester of pregnancy. Our approach represents an early modeling effort aimed at projecting the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic that might be refined as new and more accurate data from the region will be available.