RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 A Process-Based Model with Temperature, Water, and Lab-derived Data Improves Predictions of Daily Mosquito Density
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 2021.09.08.458905
DO 10.1101/2021.09.08.458905
A1 D.P. Shutt
A1 D.W. Goodsman
A1 Z.J.L. Hemez
A1 J.R. Conrad
A1 C. Xu
A1 D. Osthus
A1 C. Russell
A1 J.M. Hyman
A1 C.A. Manore
YR 2021
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2021/09/09/2021.09.08.458905.abstract
AB While the number of human cases of mosquito-borne diseases has increased in North America in the last decade, accurate modeling of mosquito population density has remained a challenge. Longitudinal mosquito trap data over the many years needed for model calibration is relatively rare. In particular, capturing the relative changes in mosquito abundance across seasons is necessary for predicting the risk of disease spread as it varies from year to year. We developed a process-based mosquito population model that captures life-cycle egg, larva, pupa, adult stages, and diapause for Culex pipiens and Culex restuans mosquito populations. Mosquito development through these stages is a function of time, temperature, daylight hours, and aquatic habitat availability. The time-dependent parameters are informed by both laboratory studies and mosquito trap data from the Greater Toronto Area. The model incorporates city-wide water-body gauge and precipitation data as a proxy for aquatic habitat. This approach accounts for the nonlinear interaction of temperature and aquatic habitat variability on the mosquito life stages. We demonstrate that the full model predicts the yearly variations in mosquito populations better than a statistical model using the same data sources. This improvement in modeling mosquito abundance can help guide interventions for reducing mosquito abundance in mitigating mosquito-borne diseases like the West Nile virus.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.