PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Stefan Kruse
AU  - Ulrike Herzschuh
TI  - Regional opportunities for Siberian tundra conservation in the next 1000 years
AID  - 10.1101/2021.11.29.470323
DP  - 2021 Jan 01
TA  - bioRxiv
PG  - 2021.11.29.470323
4099  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2021/11/30/2021.11.29.470323.short
4100  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2021/11/30/2021.11.29.470323.full
AB  - The biodiversity of tundra areas in northern high latitudes is threatened by invasion of forests under global warming. However, poorly understood nonlinear responses of the treeline ecotone mean the timing and extent of tundra losses are unclear but policymakers need such information to optimize conservation efforts. Our individual based model LAVESI, developed for the Siberian tundra-taiga ecotone, can help improve our understanding. Consequently, we simulated treeline migration trajectories until the end of the millennium, causing a loss of tundra area when advancing north. Our simulations reveal that the treeline follows climate warming with a severe, century-long time lag, which is overcompensated by infilling of stands in the long run even when temperatures cool again. Our simulations reveal that only under ambitious mitigation strategies (RCP 2.6) will ~30% of original tundra areas remain in the north but separated into two disjunct refugia.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.