RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Predator-prey interactions in a warming world: the critical role of cold tolerance
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 2022.01.17.476522
DO 10.1101/2022.01.17.476522
A1 Xuezhen Ge
A1 Cortland K. Griswold
A1 Jonathan A. Newman
YR 2022
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2022/01/20/2022.01.17.476522.abstract
AB Thermal tolerance mismatch within predator-prey systems may have pro-found effects on species population abundances and geographical distributions. To examine the generalized responses of a predator-prey system to climate change, we construct a biologically detailed stage-structured population dynamic model of interactions between ladybird beetles and aphids. We explore the model’s dynamics across the entire feasible parameter space of mean temperature and seasonality. Within this space, we explore different scenarios of predator and prey thermal tolerance mismatch to gain insight into how these thermal sensitivities affect the interacting species’ responses to climatic change. Our results indicate a predator’s cold tolerance has a larger effect on prey abundance than its heat tolerance. Mismatches between the predator’s and prey’s thermal tolerances also affect the species’ response to climate change. We identify three common patterns of species abundance across the feasible parameter space that relate to the type of thermal tolerance mismatches. Our study highlights the importance of understanding the complex interplay between climate change and species interactions.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.